If you’re looking to trade on a half a day before the Christmas holiday, you might fall into one of two or maybe both categories.
One: You just can’t stop no matter what and have to have action every single day bar none. Two: You are thinking that this is still a time to get into swing trades because 2015 will open up explosively higher or lower and you don’t want to miss the boat.
To any and all of the aforementioned possibilities I say this: the market is always here, low volume pre-holiday trading can be thin and hard to manage, plus, although the market looks great, we have no idea what will happen as the New Year begins.
Therefore, I continue to watch a few sectors that excite me at this time:Regional Banks, Solar, to name a couple, how the Russell 2000s fare, what the interest rates are telling us (obviously the GDP number was met with a perception that rates can rise) and what is best for managing the relatively light portfolio we currently have on.
Then, for the following short week, I will distribute my Phases and Forecasts 2015 to our MG subscribers, look ahead at those recommended setups as January begins and in the meantime, relish in the company of family and friends doing what the holidays are all about for us-reflection and fun!
Please enjoy this holiday message from the gang at Marketgauge.com!
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7kVeQcODWneOUkxRTBtRDBtLUU/edit?pli=1
Produced by Elnora Williams
Happy Holidays!
S&P 500 (SPY) 208.47 was the high, Tuesday it was 208.27 and it settled slightly below both numbers. 203.48 area remains the major support-otherwise, noise Subscribers: Positive pivots in all except QQQs
Russell 2000 (IWM) Couldn’t meet the 2014 highs of 120.97 with Tuesday high 120.44. However, unless it breaks under 116.60, see any dip still good buy zone
Dow (DIA) New high close here so that’s something
Nasdaq (QQQ) Unless this gaps below 103.10 and continues to fail from there, has to clear 106 now for sure
XLF (Financials) Touched recent highs and close on new ones
KRE (Regional Banks) Still has to clear 41 level but a very interesting chart all around
SMH (Semiconductors) 54.70 support to hold as the fast moving average is declining in slope giving some pause
IYT (Transportation) Cleared second line of resistance-has more to go
IBB (Biotechnology) Nasty day here-makes you think about the bigger they are, the harder they fall
XRT (Retail) New highs but a weird hammer doji candle which could spell selling
IYR (Real Estate) It touched resistance on my weekly chart. Now, unless it breaks 77, mostly noise
ITB (US Home Construction) Nice looking chart and looks good for 2015-but for now, would stay aside
GLD (Gold Trust) Don’t believe this should bode well if rates continue to firm
USO (US Oil Fund) 21.94 the real point to clear and now 21.50 a place to hold
XLE (Energy) Did what I expected-now the 50 DMA is resistance point 82.87
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Over 50 looks better
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Both services have solar stocks now so we shall see
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs face plant after the realization that the FED will love the economic stats that came out and could actually raise rates-
UUP (Dollar Bull) New highs- yet again
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Looks like its bottoming out
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Cleared the 50 DMA for an confirmed phase change to recovery-see if it sticks around 41.52
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
***NOTE: Since trading tomorrow and Friday is probably not a great idea, will have picks to watch that can be used again for Friday
ADBE 73.04 max risk with 74.55 first hurdle then R1 74.82 and finally, 76.00
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
WHR 185.30 is max risk as this is nearly over recent highs
PNRA ORR looks better to control risk against 169.43
LO 62.60 support to hold and does appear to be heading higher especially if clears 64.00 for swing
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
VLO Although there is resistance, like it if it holds the 50 DMA and then 47.40 Over 49.80 looks really good
OC Now look for an ORR
SUNE Needs to clear 19.96 with risk the lows of the day it does and closes above it-swing
GLPI Basing-needs to hold 29.08-
SFM Want to see a dip now to 32.20 area
BBRY Should hold 10.00
DDD Defensive to sell ½ but we have been here before on my probes-30.87 major support to hold
Shorts: FL shorts: TRIP OVTI
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AWAY Weakening and now, 29.30 major resistance
NEM fell apart but still looks weak if cannot clear 18.90
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
