After the low volume Thanksgiving Holiday week, I’m expecting the week to kick off with an exciting surge in volume coming into the market. Black Friday and Cyber Monday will certainly stimulate the retail sector(XRT) and should create several fresh set ups for us to trade. This will be a welcome boost for a much extended market. We are expecting that this surge in volume may create a temporary peak high. This prediction is based on behavior patterns, but –as always- we will wait and see what the market presents to us. Monday can be a pivotal day. The S&P 500 (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial (DIA) and the Russell 2000’s (IWM) have possible slingshot patterns that may or may not confirm on Monday. Hopefully, with the expected high volume this week, the market will surge past the highs set in place Friday. We will be on our toes and ready for opportunities on Monday. However, we will also keep the possible slingshot highs in mind and not get too exposed as we watch to see what happens on Cyber Monday.
-Today’s Evening Watch was prepared by Matt Mullins. Mish will be back on Monday.
S&P 500 (SPY) Possible slingshot high in place. 180.65 should be support. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Possible slingshot high in place.
Dow (DIA) 160.40 area should be support. Possible slingshot high in place.
Nasdaq (QQQ) AAPL is performing very well and giving QQQ a boost. Gapped higher. 85.24 fills the gap.
XLF (Financials) Possible slingshot high. Watch Friday’s low as support.
SMH (Semiconductors) 41.44 is possible resistance. 41.20 should be support.
XRT (Retail) New highs on Friday and getting extended. Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales can be a boost.
IYT (Transportation) New highs, yet again!
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs and 11.00 into the projected 25-30 range move off of 213.00. Potential slingshot high.
IYR (Real Estate) 63.02 should be support.
XHB (Homebuilders) 32.50 some channel resistance. Tested the top of the channel on Friday and closed near the low of the day.
GLD Pushing against the 10 DMA. Watch Friday’s low as support.
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed a slingshot low. 33.72 is the 10 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services) 48.95 is the 50 DMA.
XLE (Energy) Inside day.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed the warning phase.
UUP (Dollar Bull) 21.64 should be support at the 50 DMA
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: Looks poised! Now in an unconfirmed Accumulation Phase and has three converging moving averages as support.
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Gapped higher and now has an unconfirmed slingshot high. Beware of an island top if gaps lower.
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: 20.00 pivotal
VXX Subscribers: Confirmed the slingshot low but with overhead resistance at the 10 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
GT Looking strong as it pulls away from the 50 DMA. I prefer an ORR to control risk. S1 should hold. The 50 DMA is max risk.
CENX Inside day against three converging moving averages. 9.18 should clear. 8.97 should hold.
SGEN Inside day. Friday’s high needs to clear, which will also move this into an unconfirmed bull phase over the 50 DMA. Friday’s low is max risk.
MCHP Watch for a breakout or Opening Range Reversal over the 10 DMA. Friday’s low is max risk.
MDVN Inside day. Watch for a breakout over Friday’s high. The 10 DMA is max risk.
PETM Has good support on the 50 DMA. Watch for a breakout or reversal over Friday’s high.
BKD Just cleared the 10 DMA and has a golden cross forming. Watch for a breakout or Opening Range Reversal over the 10 DMA
IACI Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 10 DMA. 56.30 max risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CVX Looks poised for a move off of the 10 DMA. Watch for a breakout or reversal against the 10 DMA (122.35).
AEM Moved into an unconfirmed Recovery Phase on Friday. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the converging 10 and 50 DMAs.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BMR Looks heavy under 18.53. Breaking under the 200 weekly moving average and the 80 monthly moving average.
PAA Watch for a breakdown or Opening Range high failure under 51.30 only.
Bye For Now
