Let’s begin with NASDAQ as I voted for that index as the one most likely to succeed if cleared Tuesday’s high. Not a random vote; rather, one based on its price placement on the daily chart coming into Wednesday’s session. I turned out ½ correct. QQQ did indeed close better than the other indices and even managed to close green. However, after a brief visit over Tuesday’s high 85.64) intraday, it closed just shy of that. The important aspect to this analysis is that QQQ’s are holding the fast moving average and nearly posted an accumulation day in volume. The small caps Russell 2000s closed more ominously-down on the day, beneath the fast moving average and with another distribution day in volume. Casino stocks roared which given today’s market seesaw action, who needs slot machines?
S&P 500 (SPY) The last correction in mid-November-the low made was 177.98. Today’s low 178.35. However, it still needs to clear the resistance pivot overhead to change course-180.67 Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Really-112.50 has to clear to get excited
Dow (DIA) After a 3-day correction, today’s high becomes an important area to clear.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 84.65 key support and still most likely to succeed, considering Icahn talking up his AAPL!
XLF (Financials) Good turnaround-has to do a bit more to stick
SMH (Semiconductors) 40.90 area now pivotal and really close to taking out 41.44 the 2013 highs
XRT (Retail) Over 87.75 back in business
IYT (Transportation) Wouldn’t be surprised to see some digestion around these levels
IBB (Biotechnology) Still correction but holding its runaway gap
IYR (Real Estate) Not quite a reversal candle, but close. Subscribers: Like over 63.19 the 10 DMA
XHB (Homebuilders) Touchdown on the 50 DMA. Has to hold here
GLD As horrid as this looked, today it got an interesting reversal pattern.
USO (US Oil Fund) Rallied to the moving average resistance. Today’s low important to hold
OIH (Oil Services) In the warning phase, 47.50 has to hold and today’s low 47.51
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) I haven’t traded the interest rate ETFs in quite some time since they have become crazy rumor sensitive-recent one-taper-then beige book comes out-no taper!
IFN (India Fund) Crossed back over the 200 DMA
EWG (Germany) Confirmed island top
FXI (China) I need a weekly close over 40.00 to get excited
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Hung onto the 50 DMA. Over 19.80 looks very good
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: Notice the discernment between a mini and a swing trade as we near the end of the year-Miniswng rules apply
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MCHP Condition 3 even more oversold with 41.81 the gap low from 10/31 as risk. Like over today’s highs
QCOM If today’s low holds and this clears 73.51 could see another push-miniswing trade
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
P ORR only now against today’s lows
EHTH Made a huge move this year, but not over it seems-been holding 43.50 and now over today’s high then R1 could see 49-50.00 or higher
X More miniswing trade if holds today’s low and can clear 27.17
ESRX Turned and cleared the 10 DMA making 66.70 area good support and risk. Has some overhead resistance at 68.00 so like to see that clear-miniswing
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
HSP Favorite pick. Crossed the 50 DMA which means if holds 39.90 and clears 40.33 should continue for a swing with stop under today’s lows-swing
NOW Crossed the 10 and 50 DMA on decent volume. If 52.00 holds, looking for follow through-miniswing
CHK Like this a lot too. 27.22 has to clear and the 50 DMA has to hold 26.75-swing
KBH In Homebuilders and over today’s high takes it back over the 10 DMA as today it crossed the 50 DMA. Monthly interesting as well for swing
WDAY Miniswng trade with stop under today’s low and has to clear R1 80.21
THC Long at 42.78. If clears the 200 DMA 43.49, now we got something!
IGT In a full swing position. It tried but could not close above the 20 DMA. If that crosses looks great for a push to 19.00-20.00
Shorts:
Category 5:N/A
FAST Once this breaks 45.86 should see drop to 38-39.00
Bye For Now
