When “Saving Private Ryan” came out on DVD, our family watched the film in its entirety at least two dozen times. They watched the opening scene when the soldiers land in Normandy on Omaha Beach another 20 times at least. With surround sound, the bombs and gunshots reverberated throughout the house, yet after a while, I got used to living in a war zone for about forty-five minutes every day.
Over the weekend I wrote about the Volatility Index (VXX) and the Golden Cross (when the 50 crosses over the 200 DMA) which has not happened since 2012. Since volatile means uncomfortable, charged, explosive, inflammatory, turbulent, I expected fireworks in the market as the week began and volatility increased.
Now granted, the market did open lower and traded lower throughout the session selling off 95.00. However, the volume was light, the phases unchanged (bullish in 3 of the 4 indices) and my 3 “tells” did not flinch comparatively. TheRussell 2000s held the 50 DMA, Oil (USO) tested the 50 DMA although could not pierce it, the Interest Rates TLTs did not drop nor firm by any notable means and the Financial Sector ETF XLF, held good support at 24.00.
The market action brought to memory the “Saving Private Ryan” movie days certainly in no way to undermine the sacrifice our soldiers made in WWII, rather to illustrate that with the persistent trading range (now 26 days and counting) the Volatility Index although worth noting, might be merely the market’s way to remind us that the same loop played over and over after a while, has more of a numbing than fearful effect.
S&P 500 (SPY) Bullish Phase 204.34 the 50 DMA needs to hold on a closing basis or we go towards the lower end of the range Subscribers: Negative pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Bullish Phase should hold 117.57 the 50 DMA
Dow (DIA) Bullish Phase the 50 DMA at 176.45
Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed Warning Phase Would be good to see this clear 103.14 the 50 DMA and stay there. 20231 next nearby support
XLF (Financials) 24.00 held and back over 24.18 would be even better otherwise see 23.77
KRE (Regional Banks) Looking to buy a dip around 39.00
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed Warning Phase 52.89 support with a move over 53.60 better
IBB (Biotechnology) Support at 311
XRT (Retail) Look for follow through to upside back over 96.00 as still a good looking group
IYR (Real Estate) 79.13 the 50 DMA
GLD (Gold Trust) Inside day and Held the 50 DMA with the 200 DMA the resistance
GDX (Gold Miners) Inside day and nears to clear 22.00
USO (US Oil Fund) 18.50 support but now needs to clear the 50 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Cleared the 50 DMA for a confirmed recovery phase
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Quadruple bottoms since last October
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Inside day and remained weak or rates firmed
UUP (Dollar Bull) Held 25.00
RSX (Russia) Confirmed Recovery Phase
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Cleared 26.00 and stopped at the 50 DMA
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: 42.50 level now pivotal
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
IGT If clears 17.15 can look to add back the ½
JWN Reports February 19th. If holds 78.07 and clears the 78.88 are or R1, could see a miniswing trade
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
BID Reports February 26th 45.00 is pivotal. If opens above have a day to miniswing to look at
CTSH Good for a daytrade after 2 inside days since far from any decent risk
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
STT Favorite pick with an inside day that looks better over the 50 DMA which is over todays high for a swing
GS Inside day with R1 183.03 to clear for a swing
DE Reports February 19th 89.41 good point to clear with 88.90 point to hold miniswing
KORS 72.63 is the 50 DMA to clear and then it needs a push over 73.32
CIEN March 5th. 19.15 support to hold 19.50 pivotal and if market behaves, a good one for more upside swing
AFL Held ½ with 60.38 area the right stop
XOM Like hammer dojis on the 50 DMA. Over 92.28 worth a try to see if can clear 92.85 the 100 DMA for a swing
SODA Reports February 25th cleared the 50 DMA, and now look for an early take out of 20.22 for a miniswing
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
IACI Inside day with 59.11 to break for a day to mini max.
GILD If this breaks 96.00 the 200 DMA good for a miniswing maybe swing risk
GOOG still watching for a move below the 10 DMA and S1 with a swing risk over 537
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
