Low volume but firm start to the week in the indices although the DIA basically closed out the session unchanged. Calling today the possible pivotal day yet seeing that this was more of a firm digestion and actually sort of a pause kinda day, means tomorrow should be more definitive. NASDAQ continues the lead.
The sectors and groups spoke louder. Energy, Retail, Homebuilders, Oil Services, Transportationweakened underperforming the market. Semiconductors, Real Estate, Financials, Biotech and Technologystrengthened outperforming the market.
In the Starting Gate-the Thoroughbreds versus the Mules. And they’re off!
S&P 500 (SPY) 180.98 the 50 DMA and key to cross and hold. Under 177.55 trouble again Subscribers: Positive pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Better as it crossed the fast moving average. Has to keep going or a move under Friday’s low not so good
Dow (DIA) Hammer doji near Friday’s highs-and the weakest Monday-still keeping eyes here
Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed bullish phase. And really close to the highs
XLF (Financials) 21.50 is the 50 DMA and the beacon for this to cross.
SMH (Semiconductors) Managed to get into an unconfirmed bull phase-now has to hold the 50 DMA
IYT (Transportation) Retreated from its attempt to take out the 50 DMA-could be just digesting
IBB (Biotechnology) Biotechs look great and now, very close to the highs
XRT (Retail) Couldn’t clear the 200 DMA but could also be digesting-tomorrow should be clearer
IYR (Real Estate) Unconfirmed accumulation phase
XHB (Homebuilders) Went back below the 50 DMA into an unconfirmed warning phase
GLD Tight intraday range after a gap above recent consolidation
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed phase to accumulation
OIH (Oil Services) Here is another group wrestling with the 200 DMA
XLE (Energy) Inside day above the 200 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day and still looks promising on the week and month charts
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) Subscribers: 25.64 needs to clear and Friday’s low needs to hold now that this has a confirmed phase change to bullish and an inside day
EWG (Germany) Inside day under the 50 DMA
CAF (China “A” Shared Fund) In China funds, good looking
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: consolidation .Over 31.78 perhaps an add
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Not ready now-had a possible slingshot high
JO (Coffee) Teeny range inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Retraced to a good spot and now, over 53.00 looks good with a stop under 52.20
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SCTY Reports February 24th. Hammer doji and has to hold today’s lows
ISIS Reports February 27th before open Like to see it clear today’s highs now and hold 49.05
MRVL Inside day and good look on the monthly chart
NBL Cleared the 50 DMA which now has to hold and if market is strong, this looks like a good candidate
WFC Through 45.62 looks strong, with risk to today’s low
CCL Reports March 13th. Inside day. Holding the 10 DMA and over 40.43 looks good to highs 42.00 and maybe beyond
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AXL Inside day between the 200 and 50 DMAs with over 19.79 good for continuation
KSS Reports February 27th If holds today’s low, and clear R1 could be good for a hybrid swing
SHO Unconfirmed phase change to warning (improvement). Now if holds the 200 DMA 12.80 can see 13.08 and better
KBH 2 doji days in a row and like now over R1 and today’s high with risk to the 200 DMA or around 18.57
AMPE We bought a bit more than ½ position with P1 9.46 then will raise stop and see what this is made of
Shorts: Matt and I have a few we are watching on a focus list. Depending on how market looks, will post on twitter for setups
Bye For Now!
