In the continuing saga of the Dow and the Russell 2000s, they remain in warning phases. NASDAQ made new 2014 highs early on, ten closed just below it although once again, eked out a new high close.
The S&P 500 confirmed the bullish phase. Volume all around did not impact the picture. Best we can say right now is a healthy digestion of the stronger instruments, with the weaker ones not out of the ballpark, but far from looking like a grand slam.
S&P 500 (SPY) 181.00 the 50 DMA now key to hold. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 113.07 the 50 DMA or, quick drop to 110.80 if turns over Subscribers: Could be back to looking at TWM
Dow (DIA) 160.7o the 50 DMA-like to see it clear and not ruling out that possibility-otherwise, see quick drop to 156.80
Nasdaq (QQQ) Doji day (opening and closing prices basically the same-pause at new highs
XLF (Financials) Confirmed phase change to bullish by the skin of its teeth
SMH (Semiconductors) I’d be taking profits if you took the buy early last week-a bit overbought
IYT (Transportation) Interesting inside day just under the 50 DMA-good focus for tomorrow
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs, again
XRT (Retail) If breaks 80.55 not looking good. But, over the 200 DMA with some volume, much better
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day digestion
XHB (Homebuilders) Confirmed bullish phase
GLD A bit overbought
USO (US Oil Fund) Possible reversal from the high today-needs to defend the 200 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Broke back under the 50 DMA yet above the 200 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Popped back over the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Looking for 73.25-74.00
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Taking its time, but holding
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Added and want to see it take out 28.74 the high from 02/06
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: A push over today’s high will take it to a recovery phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
ISIS Reports February 27th before open 51.64 and beyond pushes this to new highs
NSC If holds today’s lows, could see run if clears R1 93.95 mini to hybrid swing
MTW 29.39 the high to clear, but now, an ORR other than buying a new high preferred and for more day to miniswing trade
ONVO Negative pivots so has to clear R1 and today’s highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) n/a
Phase Change:
YOKU Had a brick wall bottom last week and now, if holds 28.84 as a 2014 pick, could see a move over today’s high and R1 and up to the 50 DMA or beyond
TXN Held over the 50 DMA with a doji day and looks good if holds today’s lows for move first to 44.00 then if market holds, beyond
CIEN Holding the moving averages provided it holds today’s lows. 23.15 a good point to clear
MAS Held the 50 DMA and now has to clear R1 and today’s highs
XOM Brick wall bottom. Turned a day into a swing against the recent lows. Now, has to clear the 200 DMA at 91.82
AXL Now have to wait for this to clear 19.65 the 50 DMA
KSS Reports February 27th Over 52.00 looks better for a run ahead of earnings
XRX Cleared the 10 DMA and as a 2014 pick, looking at a hold of today’s low to see perhaps the 50 DMA overhead at 11.49
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AOL Inside day.If cannot clear 46.00, then could see a drop down to 43.00 and perhaps the 200 DMA
SDRL Reports February 28th. Big drop today which means like tighter risk to 36.19 and under35.20 can drop to 32.00
Bye For Now!
