The big news: Russell 2000 or small caps crossed and held the 50 DMA, going into an unconfirmed phase change to bullish. S&P 500 after a tricky beginning, held. NASDAQ made a new 2014 high. The only hold out-the Dow, close but still stubbornly in the warning phase.
Examining the sectors and groups-Semiconductors and Solars rocked, Silver gained, and Biotechnologycontinued to kill it with yet another new high.
The rest of the groups traded in line with the indices for the most part. Although I suspect that Friday, ahead of a 3 day weekend could see some digestion and chop all around, it is after all Valentine’s Day.
Will Cupid bring us more love or will Al Capone’s boys rise from the ashes to give us a massacre? Factoid-That incident occurred in 1929. Alert Tom Demark.
S&P 500 (SPY) Slight accumulation day in volume and a pretty bullish candle. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed bullish phase if holds 113.10
Dow (DIA) 160.70 the 50 DMA-gap above maybe?
Nasdaq (QQQ) New highs although approaching overbought
XLF (Financials) Held the bullish phase-that brings comfort if starts to pull away from it Friday
SMH (Semiconductors) Wow
IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed bullish phase and one I gave my readers to focus on for Thursday’s session
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs, again
XRT (Retail) The winner for the focus Friday-a gap over the 200 DMA-excellent, If not, probably good to take profits ahead of a long weekend
IYR (Real Estate) Getting overbought up here
XHB (Homebuilders) If holds the 50 DMA has lots of room
GLD Overbought
USO (US Oil Fund) Holding in a good spot
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed bullish phase
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed bullish phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gave back some of the move however, not out of the running just yet
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Solars did great
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Taking its time, but holding with an inside day
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Inside day
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Big move with the nasty weather
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Inside day so eyes here again for a move over 53.40 the 50 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HIMX Like if can clear the R1 and today’s high which also takes out the 10 DMA and will improve its condition. Would probably use a swing risk of 1.5 ATRs
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MTW Inside day now and 29.39 the high to clear, and for more day to miniswing trade
CSIQ If clears 38.95 the gap low from 2/10 then like this again for a swing trade
UAL After a gap higher to start the year, now, improved in condition and over 45.43 with risk to today’s low has lots of room
ONVO Inside day and has to clear R1 and today’s highs, then move over 10.47
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
YOKU Over 30.19 should give it the push to the 50 DMA and beyond
MAS After the big move, has corrected last 2 days with a sweet setup over R1 and today’s high against the 50 DMA
XOM Over 91.84 the 200 DMA would be great and good for a daytrade add perhaps
AXL Love this one now over today’s high and R1 assuming it will have the fuel to take out the 50 DMA
KSS Reports February 27th The longer term charts keep me interested but has to take out at least R1 and hold today’s low
KBH 18.50 the 200 DMA has to hold and over today’s high clears the 10 DMA
HUN Over 23.04 clears the 50 DMA with risk to whatever the lows would be of the day
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AGCO Inside day and looks like it could have a move lower once it takes out S1. Next support 47.75
SDRL Reports February 28th. Under35.20 can drop to 32.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
TWTR Bear Flag possible if breaks under today’s low and S1 could see move down to 50.00 first then perhaps lower
Bye For Now!
