First, I would like to offer congratulations to the Retail ETF that finally made it over the 200 DMA creating an unconfirmed phase change to warning! I also have to give a high five to NASDAQ, Biotechnology andSemiconductors, once again making new highs.
Next, I’d like to offer my condolences to the Transportation ETF that could not hold the 50 DMA thereby returning to an unconfirmed Warning Phase.
Then, I’d like to give honorable mention to the Dow, which although sold off, its ETF (DIA) had an inside day or a “pause” in the action (a bit too close to the 50 DMA which could be troublesome), but for now holding in itsBullish Phase.
Finally, I would like to cajole the SPY which came 50 ticks within the 2013 highs and closed basically unchanged.
Put this all together and what we have is more dichotomy than one can shake a stick at. We came into this week looking for a melt up just around the corner. No reason to change that prediction just yet, especially given the low volatility and volume. But, where’s the drama?
S&P 500 (SPY) A short trip to 184.94 the 2014 highs, which should happen soon before we hear double top!Subscribers: Positive pivots in all.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 115.74 is a key point of resistance to take out. 114 now key support to hold
Dow (DIA) Inside day with 160.75 super close as the line in the sand 50 DMA. This really needs to muster steam from these levels seeing 162.50 as the next overhead point to clear
Nasdaq (QQQ) New highs, overbought
XLF (Financials) 21.50 key support with 21.87 next resistance.
IYT (Transportation) Broke the 50 DMA again and now needs to show direction either heading back over 130.15 or continuing lower
XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed phase change to warning with 81.65 the 200 DMA to defend
XHB (Homebuilders) Was this the dip to buy? 31.90 support to hold
GLD Confirmed the change over the 200 DMA, first time since exactly one year ago.
USO (US Oil Fund) Base in place
OIH (Oil Services) Looks good here
XLE (Energy) Confirmed bullish phase
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) All these sectors are overbought but could easily get more overbought
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 70.80 s key moving average
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) The highs 26.41
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Looks heavy especially on the longer term charts
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) 36.45 point to clear
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Crossing the weekly moving average
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Nice-got to a profit target
BAL (Cotton) 56.15 if clears looks great
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Close to the 23 month moving average now
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Unconfirmed phase change to recovery
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CSIQ Like it still if today’s lows hold
DOW With our ½ position looking for follow through over recent highs 47.32
HSP Has 3 inside days Over 44.09 or R1 good entry point with risk to 43.35 area
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
KSS We took a profit and have ½ position to trade out ahead of earnings before market open 2/27. Really like over 53.43 and should hold 50.96
NBL More compression with converging moving averages. 67.00 point to clear
AXL Great compression with a move over 19.65 a good one to follow with risk 18.98
KBH 18.50 great support and like to see it clear 19.34
ONVO We have ½ position but if it takes out 10.47 will look to add
Shorts:
Category 5:
N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
TWTR Bear Flag possible -short sets up under todays low
CHRW Has to break S1 and not clear today’s highs
Bye For Now!
