According to the Chinese calendar, 2015 is the Year of the Goat (or sheep), creatures that are typically peaceful in nature but can also be stubborn, while exhibiting herd-like behavior. In China, the Year of the Goat can signify peace, happiness and good harvest.
Like most astrological predictions, interpretations vary. Makes sense given that this is considered the most confusing year of the Chinese zodiac. The Chinese ‘Year of the Yang’ means both the Year of the Goat and the Year of the Sheep. Obviously, these are distinctly different looking animals.
The goat has more of a negative connotation and will be used by those with a pessimistic outlook on the twelve months ahead. A sheep is viewed as more lovable.
Beijing Business Today believes that this year will be a positive one for the stock market. In previous Years of the Goat, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has posted gains. On average, goat years since 1943 have been very good for stock markets with major world indices posting gains of between 15% and 35% with the Hang Seng near the top of that range.
Meanwhile, fortune teller and Feng Shui master Sherman Tai, predicts that the Year of the Sheep/Goat is the year with lots of economic instability and conflicts. He predicts it is “a year of obstacles and extremes, with a lot of disturbances.”
According to Feng Shui expert Lillian Too of World of Feng Shui, this year will present immense opportunity to everyone “to make money, achieve success and attain their goals.”
Partisan Feng Shui analysts? Seems like both pessimists and optimists alike can find whatever prediction suits them.
With that, let’s examine FED policy and the release of the FOMC minutes that stated Interest Rates will remain at zero until further notice. The cuddly sheeptheory is that Good Grandma Janet will keep the juice flowing to help the markets (especially Global) from failing. The stubborn goat theory (Bad Grandma Janet) is that the FED allowing rates to firm is the real measure of confidence in the US Economic Recovery. Sheep-passive, Goats-aggressive.
Passive, aggressive but on the same side, we can handle. Wolves in sheep’s clothing? Like to see them stay on the other side of the Volatility Index’smoving averages- or (VXX) under 31.50
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day near the highs. Subscribers: Neutral to Positive pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) New high close
Dow (DIA) Should we be worried about 3 attempts to take out 180.71 the high from December 26th?
Nasdaq (QQQ) New high close
XLF (Financials) 24.90 the January Calendar Range high, and broke the 24.37 support-concerning.
KRE (Regional Banks) Major retreat after FED announcement since this will be better served with higher rates
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day with 56.64 resistance from December
IYT (Transportation) 165.17 January high
IBB (Biotechnology) Sheep and Goats-Never bet against this group
XRT (Retail) 2 Inside days and I suspect has lots more to go to the upside
IYR (Real Estate) Bounced off the 50 DMA not surprising given the rates announcement
ITB (US Home Construction) Inside day near the highs
GLD (Gold Trust) 116.90 is the resistance which if clears is better
GDX (Gold Miners) Over 21.20 better but really, needs to clear 21.50 and hold 20.00
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day which means could be just digesting recent rally off the lows. 20.35 is the high to clear to impress
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed Recovery phase, first time since September 2014 with an inside day
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.70 support
EEM (Emerging Markets) Basing out-it’s safe, you can come out now!
EWP (Spain) Subscribers: confirmed recovery phase change
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: Over 60.00 should see another $6.00 up from there
EWG (Germany) Resting above the 200 DMA waiting for a move over 29.28 then 29.50
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Still long term bullish here
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Confirmed the Recovery Phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TXT If holds 43.64 like over 44.60 for day to mini
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
KKD Reports March 12th 20.75 max risk with a move over 21.13 reason to see maybe move back to highs or new highs miniswing
COH If holds 39.30 see room to upside over 40.00 to around 45.45
DRI good daytrade over 62.33 for a new high move
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
PM Unconfirmed Phase change to Recovery if holds the 50 DMA with a trendline breakout over 83.50
SWC Report’s March 18th Converging moving averages and over 14.40 clears R1
*WMT Reports before open Needs to clear 86.46 for a swing risk to 85.25
ONVO Over 6.57 clears the 50 DMA then has room to 6.91 the 200 DMA with risk 6.30
Shorts: GOOG YELP COG on focus list
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BIDU 2nd Close under the 200 DMA with risk today’s high for a miniswing trade
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
