3 out of the 4 indices posted an inside day on this mainly noisy Tuesday. The Russell’s, S&P 500, and theDow all held Monday’s lows nor penetrated Monday’s highs. NASDAQ ticked 2 cents under Monday’s low but held it by the end of the day.
Furthermore, the indices were choppy. The new star, Retail, had a great day, even taking out and closing above the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bullish phase. But no sector surpassed Uranium, which ran up over 7%. Considering its main use is for Nuclear Reactors, kinda makes you wonder.
Assuming nobody plans to blow up the world anytime soon, after a significant pause day and all indices in bullish phases with SPY and the leader NASDAQ near the highs, Wednesday’s range break could be the fuel up or down to ignite volatility. At the very least, clarify next bigger direction.
S&P 500 (SPY) We shall see what Wednesday brings Subscribers: Negative pivots in all but IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) 117.37 2014 high. Looking here market seems to say higher.
Dow (DIA) If this fills the gap and holds above 162.79, hard to argue with
Nasdaq (QQQ) Looks good-like a leader should
XLF (Financials) Back to an unconfirmed warning phase-trying to make up its mind
SMH (Semiconductors) 43.00, the support held
IYT (Transportation) Held the 50 DMA which has to continue to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Tora, Tora, Tora!
XRT (Retail) Now it’s in an unconfirmed bullish phase
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day
XHB (Homebuilders) 33.38 is the 2014 high-so close
GLD Hard to sit with if you’re first getting in up here but does look strong
USO (US Oil Fund) Hasn’t been over 37.50 since October 2013-finding that area resistance now-but still holding up ok
OIH (Oil Services) Based on the push up by the close, still looks good
XLE (Energy) 88.54 the 2014 high-inside day today
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Overbought with an inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 70.37 big number to defend
EWG (Germany) 31.93 the 2013 high-Inside day
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Holding up well
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Playing out the tail after a monster move
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Over 20.50 could be the start of a breakout from a humongous base
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AA Good correction back to the 10 DMA 11.54 best risk with move over today’s high good with R1
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
Watch SODA as it reports before open and if is good, over 40.88 good setup
YUM We have the position now for a mini to swing trade after booking ½ ATR. Now, over 74.00 could really get moving.
SHO Good close and now 13.60 should be the support
FITB Hanging in there and if the fins hold, still a good one for a swing
DOW Now has to clear 47.59 like it means it
MAS If holds 22.16 then still basing out with a move 22.82 clearing this week’s high
PLD 41.35 is the high to clear with a still relatively new one clearing longer term moving averages-more miniswing since risk now far
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
GOGO A push over today’s high and could get exciting after holding the slingshot low from early Feb. Risk is 19.75
JWN 2 inside days right under the 50 DMA which means once it clears 59.57 cold see move to 63.00
Shorts:
VXX Plan tomorrow for Keith is to have 2 stops ½ under 41.33 and ½ under 40.37
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EL Under 67.45 breaks the 10 DMA and S1 for a good risk to 68.50
AOL Looks like it is about to drop further-to the 200 DMA-especially if breaks 43.28
Bye For Now!
