I began this week predicting Monday would set the tone for the rest of the week. Well, if digestion, choppiness and diversion were the tone, thenyes-but directionally in the indices not so much. I also predicted that Friday after the jobs report (how much it exceeds or recedes from 7%) could create a U-turn.
Here’s the rub-will the underachievers like Oil, Real Estate, Metals turn up? Or, will the indices holding on for dear life along with the shining stars-Biotechnology, Transportation and Financials turn down?
Moreover, will none of the above transpire leaving us drowning in indecision?
S&P 500 (SPY) 184 is the area to clear since the gap last week. 182 the support. Subscribers: Slightly Positive Pivots here and in IWM. Negative in DIA QQQ
Russell 2000 (IWM) 114 is really key with another try over 115 better
Dow (DIA) Still holding the runaway gap from 12/26. Over 163.26 continues to do so-over 165 looks better
Nasdaq (QQQ) Sloppy day and weaker close than the others-AAPL partly the culprit
XLF (Financials) Another new high-fins, don’t fail us now!
SMH (Semiconductors) Not a bright spot with yet another sloppy chart
IYT (Transportation) New highs-interesting
IBB (Biotechnology) A big move partly because of Intercept Pharmaceuticals up 282%! Crazy!!
XRT (Retail) Broke the 50 DMA and a reason for concern
IYR (Real Estate) Could be basing. Need more evidence
XHB (Homebuilders) Was looking for 32.24-maybe today was it-here is one place I would definitely look for that U-turn!
GLD the reversal candle is still intact
USO (US Oil Fund) Possible reversal if it clears 33.30
OIH (Oil Services) Another place to look for a U-turn
XLE (Energy) This group loves the 50 DMA-yet another place for U-turn
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Here too
UUP (Dollar Bull) 21.80 now the next point to clear
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Cleared the 10 DMA and over 40.60 looks good with risk to today’s low
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: A weekly close over 20.00 will be a signal to go in
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TRIP Held the 50 DMA but didn’t much therefore, good one tomorrow against today’s low with potential
HSP We’re in and will let this go expecting new highs
JBLU Will watch again but the move down probably means back to the drawing board especially if the oil turns up
MAS The high and R1 line up well-the risk that makes sense is today’s low
THC 2 inside days making this a fave. R1 is 46.12 to clear with the risk to today’s low for mini to swing
TEX Still like this if holds today’s lows
CCL Great close over the 10 DMA for a condition improvement. Over 40 can use today’s low-a 2014 pick
VNO Nice recovery! Through 91.00 would be amazing!
AXL 2014 pick. Inside day. Over20.14 looks good with risk to 19.28 the 50 DMA
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CYH in recovery phase with support at 40.97 and if clears 42.57 and R1-good short to clear the 200 DMA at 43.35-half position until it crosses 200 DMA
PEP after testing the 50 DMA moved down last 2 days, but now over R1, the second test of the 50 can push it up above. Risk 82.27
Shorts: We are short a ½ position by being long TWM the ultrashort.
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MOS Under 46.00 can see a new move down with risk 46.65
AAPL 533.60 is the number to break as it si back in an unconfirmed warning phase. Then, can see 520.00
EBAY If this cannot clear 53.30 area, then looks good for a swing short down to 49.00
CLDX After the big drop had a 2-day rally now under today’s low could see the move down to the 200 DMA
Bye For Now!
