28 Days Later. In many circles, that is a complete cycle-ladies? It’s also the amount of time one spends in rehab typically. In the film, it was the day the zombies came to life (dead alive). Interestingly, it’s called a “Keith Number” introduced by Mike Keith in 1987 as a Fibonacci-like sequence.
On this Day 28 of the 6 month calendar range, NASDAQ confirmed the breakout. The S&P 500 almost did likewise staving off an apocalyptic event clearly abetted by some friends, the Semiconductors, Retail and Financials. However, in the final moments, SPY sold off from the highs to close marginally over 206.88 (The zombies stir).
As for the other 2 indices, Russell 2000s posted an inside day (when the trading range is within the trading range of the day prior), while the Dow tickled the January Calendar Range high but could not clear it.
The Russell 2000s is still a bit far from the January 6 month high (happens in the first 10 trading days of the new year) to celebrate the Fab Four all in attendance.
The volatility index firmed, which as I have mentioned since last week, continues to suggest warning even as the market climbs close to the breakout points.
Overall, market is really choppy. You know the conventional wisdom on how to kill a zombie? With an axe (makes no noise hence attracting others) and chop off its head. Start wielding!
S&P 500 (SPY) Over the Calendar Range so that has to be better. Could still a slow grind and not much in the way of fireworks given volatility index. Bullish Phase Subscribers: Positive pivots in all IWM DIA more neutral to positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Bullish Phase Inside day 120.56 January Calendar Range high with 118.30 now the important support to hold
Dow (DIA) Bullish Phase 179.23 the January Calendar Range high with 176.47 the support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed Bullish Phase Now want to see 104 area hold with 103.10 the 50 DMA. Then, we can talk about November highs from 2014
XLF (Financials) Confirmed Bullish Phase 24.17 pivotal
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Like this a lot over Wednesday’s high with risk to 38.70
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed Bullish Phase and took out the January Calendar Range High
IYT (Transportation) Marginally cleared the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Wild day with a test of R2 and S1. Now, all about holding the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Good group and tested the Calendar Range high or 96.85 but closed shy of it
ITB (US Home Construction) Matched the multi-year highs
GLD (Gold Trust) Broke the 50 DMA sitting at the 100 DMA or 117
USO (US Oil Fund) 18.50 pivotal
XLE (Energy) If you’re going to go anywhere in the oil, energy group, this had an inside day over the 50 DMA
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) My semis of 2015!
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Held the 50 DMA and could bounce more if clears 130.50, otherwise, will break for the first time since September 2014
UUP (Dollar Bull) Consolidating over 25.00
RSX (Russia) 17.13 fills a gap
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: N/A
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
FEYE Reported so now, if gaps over 36.85 can do a 5, 30 minute OR or an ORR day to mini
TSLA Reported too and if opens over 216 could be interesting
WFM Reported could be a gap over 54.48
IGT Using Calendar Range Highs, 17.29 is the number to clear
BKD Did ½ over 36.72 and add over the Calendar Range high 37.23 swing
AVGO Reports February 25th Cleared the January Calendar Range high so looking at an ORR or 5 minute OR for a daytrade
BID Reports February 26th 45.00 is pivotal. If opens above have a day to miniswing to look at
MNST Reports February 26th 118 support and 120 some resistance to clear Miniswing
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
YUM 74.20 clears the 200 DMA and the January Calendar range high 73.78 which is a good risk
PM If clears 83.24 like for a 2 ATR swing risk trade put away
GE Like over 24.80 the 50 DMA for ½ with calendar range at 25.46
STT Inside day 79.31 Calendar Range high but like over today’s high
GS ORR best against the 50 DMA
DE Reports February 19th consolidation good if clears 89.30 for a day to mini
CIEN March 5th. 19.88 is the January Calendar Range high to clear now with a choice of either day or miniswing trade
Shorts: Watch CBS post earnings for signs of weakness under the 200 DMA
Category 5:N/A
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
