Way to go out on a high note! The Friday U-turn I wrote about happened, but not in just a few instruments; rather, in many.
The fledgling Country ETFs turned around nicely which means with any follow through this week, some great trading opportunities. The Oil, Metals, Homebuilders and Real Estate sectors rebounded.
The USDA report gave CORN (ETF) a boost and Biotechnology continued its rocket launch to new high territory.
The Indices, though, did not wow with the Dow closing down while the others ended only marginally higher.Retail closed weak. Financials experienced profit taking ahead of the earnings reports of many bank stocks coming up-several before the market opens this Tuesday.
Therefore, this year is setting up to be all about being in the right place at the right time-and given real concerns in the labor market, anticipation of a dovish FED maintaining low interest rates.
With this trader still somewhat incredulous, that could all be so last week-time will tell.
S&P 500 (SPY) Closed over 184 which means has to stay above there for a chance to run up more. Otherwise, Friday low has to hold Subscribers: Slightly Positive Pivots here and in IWM. Negative in DIA QQQ
Russell 2000 (IWM) Like SPY, here 115 is the number to hold above for more upside and 114 the low to hold to keep things in check
Dow (DIA) Inside day. Holding the runaway gap from 12/26. Under 163.26 that’s the end of that while over 165 a lot better
Nasdaq (QQQ) Sideways main impression here
XLF (Financials) Inside day while this rests ahead of earnings
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day and still not showing any real muscle
IYT (Transportation) New highs here too-hope this sector employs folks who need jobs
IBB (Biotechnology) Pharmas rule the world
XRT (Retail) Confirmed warning phase-why I cannot jump up and down for joy just yet at Friday’s strength
IYR (Real Estate) Unconfirmed recovery phase showing the basing action in play from last week
XHB (Homebuilders) U-turned Friday but still has resistance to clear over 33.00
GLD Contrary to everything logical, bottoming taking place with the 50 DMA right there
USO (US Oil Fund) Although it recovered from lows, not with any real oomph
OIH (Oil Services) U-turn-now has to hold 46.80
XLE (Energy) Inside day on the 50 DMA-should be heading for some decisive trading this week-below or above that 50 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. Still in a warning phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Taper? What taper?
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Over 40.60 looks good with risk to today’s low
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: A weekly close over 20.00 will be a signal to go in
FXI (China) Subscribers: New Brick wall bottom and the 200 DMA is the point to clear
EWW (Mexico) Love the action here Friday. Subscribers: Against Friday low will be a place to look for a new swing long with the phase change
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Yet another and way more powerful slingshot low. Now, if holds 30.69 will look for a confirm and new long. 31.41 is the 50 DMA to break above
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
JBLU Inside day. 8.74 the new risk and over 9.22 see this continuing
TEX 41.06 Friday’s low is the new risk to use
HOG Reports January 30th Inside day good risk to the 10 DMA and near multiyear highs with 2006 highs 75.87
AXL Long ½ position only with risk to under 19.7 now and a possible add over recent highs 20.67
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CYH Over 41.68 worth a shot with risk to Friday’s low
PEP Needs one more push to clear the 50 DMA
KSS Phase change with Friday’s low now risk and a real nice looking monthly chart nice clears 59.00 for the longer term
KRFT I have a short memory therefore over 54.00 back in on the phase change
AXLL Golden cross and rare when the price is right near the moving averages and with an inside day. Trifecta with a great stop under 44.67
Shorts: We are short a ½ position by being long TWM the ultrashort.
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AAPL Still in play for a short but prefer an OR high failure to control risk against 541-542 level.
RIG 49.07 risk and still quite vulnerable especially under 48.00
QIHU Did a one day short squeeze then broke back under the 50 DMA. 82.56 max risk
Bye For Now!
