Since we dutifully waited on the dock for the next party boat to pull up rather than head back to shore; we boarded, taking the long (pun intended) walk up the plank. Now, we revelers are riding the mechanical bull.
However, since I am the designated driver aka Captain of this ship, I head out soberly, conservatively, somewhat hedged and not overly exposed, making sure the life rafts can hold everyone, just in case.
Wednesday, the 15th is significant on many counts. Not the least of which is the calendar range. Read below for those important ranges we are watching to break one way or another.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. The 2014 high now has to clear and Monday’s low has to hold Subscribers: Positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) The 2014 high now has to clear and Monday’s low has to hold
Dow (DIA) Inside day. The 2014 high now has to clear and Monday’s low has to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Made a new 2014 high which now has to follow through and Monday’s low has to hold
XLF (Financials) Inside day and under the fast moving average-still needs to prove itself
SMH (Semiconductors) New highs!!! 42.30 now pivotal support
IYT (Transportation) Inside day near highs-nice one to watch
IBB (Biotechnology) Never doubt the power of pharmaceuticals. New highs
XRT (Retail) Inside day and frankly, not too impressive
IYR (Real Estate) Base is in but now has to clear 64.70
XHB (Homebuilders) Gotta see more here for it to be convincing
GLD Unconfirmed phase change to bearish-just when lots of traders got bullish
USO (US Oil Fund) Dull
OIH (Oil Services) U-turn again-watch Friday’s high
XLE (Energy) Inside day in the now warning phase
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs now have to hold 103.50 area
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day (Flag forming)
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: A weekly close over 20.00 will be a signal to go in in spite of the island top
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: 2 Inside days and still very much on my radar over today’s high
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Waiting for 31.60
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: 53.33 is the 200 DMA to clear as my focus continues to head into commodities
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Watch for a gap higher above 52.56 for possible island bottom
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
FOR THE MOST PART, STICKING TO 2014 PICKS
XRX Reports January 24th before the open. Could have added today on the ORR but now, have to wait for a move over 12.29 after an inside day
TEX Cleared the 10 DMA for an improved condition with support now at 40.95
TSLA Have to wait for some digestion, but after today, an ORR is the first thing I would look for
BMRN Inside day. Over 71.89 could see a break after 2 months of consolidation
X Over 29.78 clears resistance and could see more before it reports January 28th
VMC Inside day and condition improvement with a move over 60.00 the real place to clear
FB Reports January 29th. Inside day and like risk to today’s low
AXL Back in with ½ position and now can look for an ORR against 19.85 for an add.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
IGT Reports January 21st so we have to be out Tuesday before the close. Have ½ position looking for 18.02 then will let rest ride if good
SHO Phase change unconfirmed so if holds 13.15 can do for a swing trade
KRFT In now for ½ position with a hold of the 200 DMA reason to add on an ORR
BXP Confirmed the phase change to accumulation with 103.70 great risk
SWC 2 inside days and a golden cross. Like this over today’s high with risk to today’s low
PXD Slingshot low if confirms over the 200 DMA
Shorts: We are short a 1/4 position by being long TWM the ultrashort.
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
RAX Inside dayLike to see it break 35.68 and not clear 37.10
MON Inside day. Really has to break today’s low which is also the 50 DMA
COST Inside day. Really has to break today’s low which is also the 200 DMA
MCD Inside day. Has to break 94.59 for next leg down
Bye For Now!
