At the 2-week mark for 2014, NASDAQ closed on new highs along with the Russell 2000s or small caps. The S&P 500 tested, but closed just shy of new highs while the Dow, has a lot more to prove.
However, that only tells a partial story. Several sectors do not reflect the optimism of the indices, namelyRetail, Oil and Services, Energy, and Homebuilders.
Biotechnology took a pause; Financials, Semiconductors and Transportation firmed to new highs; Real Estate recovering well off the lows and the US Oil Fund still in a bearish phase, managed a decent rally after becoming significantly oversold.
Each day begins the hunt for the overachiever versus the underdog. Perhaps this diversion will continue until we get through the many big names still yet to report. Perhaps this is the way of this year.
Perhaps the market would be a lot clearer if we all move to Colorado.
S&P 500 (SPY) If the move today is real, should hold the gap low. I did write some time ago that 220 was the measured move here. But, I may be totally gray by the time it gets there Subscribers: Positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) New highs-like to see it stick
Dow (DIA) 165 has to clear at the least
Nasdaq (QQQ) Gap low from this session needs to hold
XLF (Financials) So it proved itself-one place I imagine, will like a firm US dollar
SMH (Semiconductors) Yup, new highs
IYT (Transportation) New highs; looking to see if it continues
IBB (Biotechnology) Pause
XRT (Retail) Still looking heavy which could be a precursor for more trouble
GLD Confirmed phase change to bearish-but not so convinced it will go much lower at this time
USO (US Oil Fund) Finally, a short covering rally but still has overhead resistance
OIH (Oil Services) Digesting here, but not that impressive
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs have a 2-day correction which means either it holds here or back to trouble for rates
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery. Subscribers: Over 21.80 will most likely get back in with risk to under 21.62
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Rallied above the inside day then languished. If holds 40.00, and clears 40.50 a good reason to think higher
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: A weekly close over 20.00 will be a signal to go in in spite of the island top
EWG (Germany) No more island top-a good thing
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: Took the small swing position but now, want to see it hold 66 and clear 67.00
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: 53.31 is the 200 DMA to clear as my focus continues to head into commodities
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
VMC a move over 60.00 the real place to clear for now a miniswing trade
SHO Phase change confirmed so if holds todays low can do for a swing trade
SCTY Hard to discern risk, but watch for a day to miniswing trade.
TWTR Steep trendline from the highs in December that if 61.40 holds (best risk) and today’s high clears could mean higher-day to miniswing
SPWR flirting with clearing the 80 month moving average with risk under 30.50
OC Over 42.16 if holds 41.17 have a decent swing trade
THC 2 inside days with risk 45.42 the 10 DMA and wait for a move over 46.91
AIG Over 52.47 with risk to 51.48 looks good for a push higher-miniswing to hybrid
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
BAX Held the 200 DMA. Over R1 with a risk to 69.57 good for a swing-
KRFT Confirmed the accumulation phase with an inside day-will look to add over 54.71 looking for 56.00
PXD Slingshot confirms so eyes here tomorrow of holds S1
GGP A fave if holds today’s low with the unconfirmed phase change to accumulation
CYH An unconfirmed phase change to recovery. If holds today’s low, looks like it’s turning back up
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
APA A break of 84.00 breaks the 200 DMA
NOV Under S1 looks heavy to the 200 DMA
COST 2 Inside days. Really has to break today’s low which is also the 200 DMA
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
MCD 95.75 is good resistance with a move under S1 now necessary
Bye For Now!
