Well that sure cleared things up, NOT! What do you do with this type of diversion lately with earnings season gearing up (Intel dropped post earnings giving Semiconductors (SMH) indigestion). And, what about those poor folks long Best Buy down 28.59%? Ouch!
Some good news-the S&P 500 held 184, an important level, the Russell 2000s made new highs,NASDAQ traded inside the trading range from Wednesday, Rates remain low, and nothing seems to buzz kill Biotechnology!
Elon Musk is king of the world for sure with the big moves in Solar City and Tesla. Perception fuels momentum. Yes, alternative energy and electric cars are the future; however, how many houses do you know using solar and how many people do you know drive an electric car?
We are well heeled in our portfolio, but I can’t help asking myself every day, what if pharmas, solar andTSLA stop rallying? What’s holding the market up?
S&P 500 (SPY) 183.45 area is the fast moving average to hold while a break over the current highs will have to be respected. Subscribers: Negative pivots here in DIA and positive in QQQ and IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) If one looks just here-looks higher
Dow (DIA) 165 has to clear at the least and today’s low has to hold at most
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day
XLF (Financials) Ball and chain or rest stop?
SMH (Semiconductors) Same question
IYT (Transportation) Also more troublesome than the indices
IBB (Biotechnology) The hunt for the next drug company to go ballistic
XRT (Retail) Remains trouble with one note-landed on support for October 2013
IYR (Real Estate) Liking the rate drop here but now running into resistance
XHB (Homebuilders) Housing starts tomorrow-could be decisive action here as it is holding the 50 DMA
GLD Confirmed phase change to bearish-but not so convinced it will go much lower at this time
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day after the short covering
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Better looking after the record low natural gas inventories but still has overhead to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Hard to believe except for the fact that the economy is not as robust as the FED would like
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed phase change to recovery. Subscribers: Over 21.80 will most likely get back in with risk to under 21.62
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Over 40.10 then 40.50 puts this back in play
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: A weekly close over 20.00 will be a signal to go in in spite of the island top
EWG (Germany) No more island top-and an inside day
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Still watching carefully
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Over 23.65 compelling entry for swing
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Subscribers: If holds 19.30 then possible re entry
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Big alert here with possible island bottom! If confirms I will try another long here for a swing Risk would be to about 51.18 above the top of the island
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
NOTE: The Phases and Calendar Range Webinar is online at mish.marketgauge.com along with the Phases/Forecasts Report.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WAG A perfect condition 1 correction setup with risk to the 50 DMA if clears R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
VMC We really should be in from 59.00, but with 60.14 the highs, not adverse to a minisiwng trade should they clear
DOW Reports January 29th Inside day and improved condition. Risk for swing under S2 with great potential through 45.00
SHO Good hold but never setup on a reversal or breakout-tomorrow could be the day
HCA Consolidating with positive pivots now and 50.46 area good risk. Has to clear and close over 51.41
TWTR 60.25 main support. It’s up in the aftermarket so eyes here.
SPWR Look for an ORR here
THC Over 47.33 like with a day to miniswing trade risk
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CAG Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation with today’s low max risk and a good base which could take this to around 40.00
TRIP Tried to clear the 50 DMA-over 85.23 like with risk to around 84.00
KRFT Feels like it’s getting ready to run the longer it holds 54.00
PXD Missed the ORR but now, after a bullish engulfing pattern, would buy and look to risk to 174.35 area
CYH Confirmed phase change to recovery. If holds today’s low, not too late to jump in
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MON Like under 112
NOV Under S1 looks heavy to the 200 DMA
COST 3 Inside days. Really has to break today’s low which is also the 200 DMA-BIG eyes here one way or another
WFM Still heavy with next support 49.00
Category 6: White Cap N/A
Bye For Now!
