Even more noise as we await until the market (the Dow) breaks the range of the first two weeks one way or another. However, with S&P 500 holding 184.00 level, the Russell 2000s and NASDAQ going to new highs, today’s sloppy action proved encouraging.
The perplexing relationship among the rates, US dollar and the metals forges on. Silver and Gold dropped yet held critical support on the daily chart. The US dollar maintained the recovery phase. Rates fell again.
Natural Gas and Gas and Exploration had particularly strong moves, crossing back above the 50 DMA.Regional Banks performed well along with the darling of the market-Biotechnology. Retail continues to drag.
All in all, rates remaining on the low side should give oomph to certain commodities and any interest rate sensitive instrument (Real Estate).
S&P 500 (SPY) 184.94 the high to clear for a clean confirmation. Then back to looking for 220.Subscribers: Positive pivots in all except DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Subscribers: Today broke the calendar range to the upside!
Dow (DIA) 165 is the place to clear and 162.14 the place to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Some big earnings coming up here-GOOG, AMZN, AAPL to name the top 3.Subscribers: Today broke the calendar range to the upside!
XLF (Financials) Over 22.06 looks like the 3 day correction is done
SMH (Semiconductors) 42.65 is the place to clear after an inside day
IYT (Transportation) Like this over the highs for more
IBB (Biotechnology) Fearless leader
XRT (Retail) Even closer to the 200 than the 50 DMA right now.
XHB (Homebuilders) On cue, tested and held the 50 DMA.
GLD 119 acted as support.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.26 the 50 DMA to clear
XLE (Energy) Back to an unconfirmed bull phase, but not an exciting group for me right now
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Dropped to the 200 DMA so if rates will firm, it will be from this point
UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: 41.00 the high now to clear
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: Now that we got the weekly close over 20.00, will look here for a move over 20.25 or R1
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Like over 30.62 with risk to under the recent low-for probably ½ position until it clears the 50 DMA
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Eyes remain here
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Unconfirmed bullish phase and trendline breakout. Look for an ORR
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**PLAN: With the calendar range in the overall indices yet unclear which way it will break, will focus primarily on the following:
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AXL Reports Febraury 6th. After the correction, looking here to add to the core positions for another move up-mini to hybrid swing
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
VMC Reports February 3rd. Looks poised for new highs with 59.45 good risk
FDX Lots of time before it reports. 141.54 is the 10 DMA to hold. Then, through today’s high, looks good to recent highs and beyond
TEX Reports February 19th. over 42.81, next resistance 43.50 but all about risk
TTM Reports February 7th. Crossed the 50 DMA. If holds like to 35.00 or higher
CIEN Unconfirmed phase change to bullish which now makes an ORR against the 50 DMA good for risk
TASR Reports January 29th before open. Hammer Doji so if today’s low holds, then could see a clearance of recent highs with a day to miniswing trade
TWTR Like the opening range reversal today which makes a move over 63.48 and today’s high good for a mini to hybrid swing, Risk 61.54
FB Reports January 29th. Over 58.96 good for more with miniswing and risk to 57.45
CI Reports February 7th before the open. Could go to new highs with risk 89.21 but more for miniswing
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ASML Reports before open with a brick wall pattern should the report be good and this holds the 200 DMA
CREE reported and was up after market. Through 65.60 fills the overhead gap with an interesting cup and handle daily chart formation
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
JOY If breaks 54.77 the recent consolidation and S1, could see more downside to the 200 DMA
APA Reports February 13th. 2 inside days. Like the break under the 200 DMA
FCX 36.00 now max risk.
COST Short a teeny position now that it broke the 200 DMA. Needs to confirm. Under 113.92 breaks the 2 week low with risk at the 200 DMA
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
