I know I have written this before; but clearly the mantra for 2014 is “Find the hot group/sector”. For, if one had done that since this year began, one would have come as close to Nirvana as one could possibly be given the low volume, choppy and diverse conditions that prevail.
For example, look at semiconductors. Not only did that group well outperform, but CREE-a semiconductor that reported earnings, roared throughout the session posting gains of over 7%
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day.184.94 the high to clear for a clean confirmation. Then back to looking for 220.Subscribers: Positive pivots in all except DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) The winner! Small caps another great place to look.
Dow (DIA) Inside day. 165 is the place to clear and 162.14 the place to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Also a winner! Subscribers: A setup now for a long swing using a stop under 88.52. Over the calendar range
XLF (Financials) Inside day. Over 22.02 looks like the 4 day correction is done
SMH (Semiconductors) Now waiting for the 2014 highs to clear and should hold 42.65
IYT (Transportation) Quietly made new highs
IBB (Biotechnology) Fearless, fearless leader!
XRT (Retail) Teeny range inside day-not that convincing here-200 DMA quite possible
XHB (Homebuilders) Bounced from the 50 DMA-with some volume.
GLD 119 acting as support as it is back to a bearish phase
USO (US Oil Fund) Cleared the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed recovery phase
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day with the 50 DMA overhead
XLE (Energy) Confirmed bull phase
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed phase change to bullish
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Bounce off the 200 DMA Subscribers: Possible brick wall if confirms over today’s high
UUP (Dollar Bull) 2 inside days
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: Inside day and still like over R1
FXI (China) Cleared the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed warning phase. Subscribers: 36.55 is the 200 DMA to hold with a move to 37.50 or so a good next target
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Like this over 42.00 with stop under 40.90
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: 30.72 the 10 DMA is a really good place for this to clear
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AXL Reports February 6th. Added over R1. Now, should hold 20.40 and continue to 21.40 or better
VMC Reports February 3rd. Only way to trade this now is over the highs-60.27
FDX If holds today’s low like this over 143 now
TASR Reports January 29th before open. If holds today’s low, like this over today’s high for a quick pop ahead of earnings
TWTR Reports February 5th Over today’s high, clears the trendline I showed in today’s video with 61.54 max risk
MRVL 15.15 support for an ORR now or if clears15.46, same risk
SPWR Reports February 12th Inside day and good risk down to 33.00 with a move over 34.64 good
OC Reports February 12th. Big day which should clear the highs tomorrow to be good with risk close around 41.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change:
ASML Doji day over the 50 DMA therefore like against the 50 DMA on breakout or ORR
CREE Like for an ORR for best risk
SFY Reports 1/30 Before the open Cleared the 50 DMA at 13.33 now the place to hold
PLD Reports January 30th Before Market If holds 37.59 could see run to the 200 DMA
CBL Reports February 4th. Possible slingshot low provided it holds today’s low and clears 17.54-also the 80 month moving average
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MON Watch for an Opening Range High Failure on this against the 50 DMA 112.52
JOY If breaks 54.77 the recent consolidation and S1, could see more downside to the 200 DMA
COST Maybe an add on an OR high failure
Bye For Now!
