I don’t know about you all, but I came into work today with my skis, wingsuit andparachute at the ready. Although the Shane McConkey story paralleled extreme sports and trading as an extreme sport, calm prevailed my mood as I watched the January Calendar Range hold like a rock in three of the four indices (S&P 500 SPY, Russell 2000s IWM and NASDAQ QQQ.)
After oil’s big drop, I remain on the lookout for a blow off bottom. Likewise, I continue to watch interest rates or long bonds for a blow off top. Both blow offs have yet to happen, but a girl can hope since I cannot imagine a better shot of adrenaline to the market that will finally stir it from its now 19 day trading range.
Small caps (IWM) recaptured the 50 daily moving average putting it back into anunconfirmed bullish phase. Apple and Facebook accomplished their Herculean task, thank you very much. And the financial sector, XLF, touched down on the major 200 DMA then turned to close above key pivots and near the intraday highs.
So as much I would like a tranquil end of the week/month on Friday, I have trained for a fight to the finish and suspect the market will go the full 10 rounds. Can I wish for a TKO to the bears? A strong weekly close and hello February-almost time for the horse to head back to its stable and the sheep to freely roam in the meadow.
S&P 500 (SPY) Warning Phase Held January low at 198.55. A move over 202.60 should help that we are looking at the 50 DMA Subscribers: Negative pivots in SPYQQQ Positive in DIA IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed Bullish Phase Or the Cybil of the market. Over 117.30 the 50 DMA. Should stick or looking at underlying support 115.30 with 114.20 the January low
Dow (DIA) Warning Got back over 172.12 after breaking the January low. 174.80 next hurdle if it holds that low
Nasdaq (QQQ) Warning Phase Over 102.10 better if can sustain support at 100.95
XLF (Financials) Good bounce off the 200 DMA and now, over 23.55 could be worst is over
SMH (Semiconductors) If this clears 54.38 then it clears a lot of resistance
IBB (Biotechnology) Whew, back over the January Calendar Range high
XRT (Retail) A definite place to look for strength as many names still setup well
IYR (Real Estate) Held 81.89 which is the support to hold
ITB (US Home Construction) Did great and now over 26.16 looks even better
GLD (Gold Trust) Landed on the January Calendar Range high and the 200 DMA-moment of truth
USO (US Oil Fund) 16.90 is a good place to clear to see yet another possible new low intact and done with for now
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Getting ready to jump in for a position swing trade should this hold these levels on Friday
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Inside day near the highs which means under 134.25 would be a good reason to feel more confident in the market
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.70 support
EWG (Germany) Looks pretty good
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Good comeback over critical area and now over 42.80 better
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Has my attention-best I can say
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JWN Reports February 19th 77.05 a good risk point and like if clears 78.95 for a possible move to 80.00 and above-mini to swing
WMT Reports February 19th if holds 87.39 and clears 88.20 like for a move to the highs and maybe beyond
ODP Reports February 24th Like if holds 7.88 and clears R1 7.98
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MRVL Reports February 19th Over 15.55 clears R1 and the 10 DMA with the risk under the 50 DMA
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AAPL Either this gaps and we can follow the gap higher for a daytrade or we get an ORR against today’s low
FB Reported and cleared 3 moving averages. Support 76.35 and over 78.00 could see move to 80.00 next
ETR Reports February 4th Had an ORR when the market was under pressure, but now over 90.00 should continue for a day to mini
AXL Inside day near the highs should be good for a daytrade at least if clears 25.00
Category 4:N/A
Phase Change:
ONVO Recovery Phase with 6.90 resistance and 6.36 support
AA If holds 15.62 for a miniswing maybe swing still a contender over 16.12
NVDA Reports February 11th if holds 19.11 and clears 20.05 looks good especially on the monthly charts
GS Like over 176.48 the 200 DMA for a swing risk to under today’s lows
ADSK Reports February 26th Slingshot low if confirms over 55.87 R1. Especially good one when the slingshot low also clears the 200 DMA
IGT Reported and really, 17.10 is the place to clear
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
HUN Resistance at 22.26 with if market weakens ripe for lower-mini to swing
DTV ½ position. Under the 200 DMA now for an confirmed phase change to Distribution-now resistance at 84.92
CBS Reports February 12th Should not clear 57.00
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
