The market still has me somewhat concerned-not the end of days type of concern, but more of when will the big correction really get going type of concern. I write this because of how the first 3 trading days began (clearly pointing towards some downside) and that the Tuesday turnaround didn’t actually clear important overhead resistance. See the recap below.
Plus, we have unknowns ahead of us-FED minutes, earnings season, jobs report in particular. I thought that if the Real Estate ETF could change to a more positive phase, that could juice the market more. Alas, it did intraday, but closed back in its bear phase-where it’s been since August 2013.
Unless you are a super active daytrader, the trading plan for now is to take a stance based on solidrisk/reward parameters, diversify your portfolio-and then hang out avoiding the temptation to overtrade.
Besides, earnings is not the only season upon us-awards season begins-so many good movies, so little time!
S&P 500 (SPY) 184 is the area to clear since the gap last week. 182 held up today so if it breaks, see 180 easily. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Amazing when you see a pivotal point like114.10 the low of the day. We had an inside day though with this under the fast moving average. That seems the best reason to think the correction is not over
Dow (DIA) 165 would have been a great area to close above. However, it closed just shy. Therefore, tomorrow’s first 30 minutes should be really affirming if this wants more up or is going to break 164 and continue going south
Nasdaq (QQQ) “Expect to see the 50 DMA unless it clears 87.25.” Love these technical indices-that was today’s high. If it clears, great, if not, 85.00 next stop
XLF (Financials) Keeping hope alive unless it breaks 21.80
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day and with a declining slope on the overhead fast moving average
XRT (Retail) Today’s low is the 50 Daily moving average and a really important area of support
IYT (Transportation) Inside day and similar scenario to retail ETF
IBB (Biotechnology) Best looking ETF today-let’s see if it can hold 225
IYR (Real Estate) Could be basing. Need more evidence
XHB (Homebuilders) Looking a bit heavy
GLD Gapped lower but wound up with an inside day
USO (US Oil Fund) Some short covering but hardly a reversal candle
OIH (Oil Services) Looking vulnerable to the 200 DMA
XLE (Energy) Sweet spot and more decisive action there today. Like over 88.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day
UUP (Dollar Bull) Over 21.76 really appears to be bottoming action
IFN (India Fund) Subscribers: A weekly close over 20.00 will be a signal to go in
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Long small position as it cleared and confirmed the slingshot low. The 50 DMA next hurdle 31.60
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Over 52.76 looks good for possible move over the 200 DMA-53.44 is the 200 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Watching 54.75 to clear
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CIEN Inside day and a really good stop to the 50 DMA 22.81 if can clear 23.50
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CBST Reports January 22nd. Doji day back over the 10 DMA and still seems like it could see a push higher if 67.00 holds
FITB Reports January 23rd. Almost an Inside day and has to hold today’s low.
TRIP Blasted off over the 50 DMA and now if holds 84.25 area, could finally be really to move to 90.00 and beyond
SFY Closed better and now looking for a good spot to add if holds the 50 DMA 13.49
XRX Reports January 24th. We can now use today’s low as a short term miniswing risk
TSLA Inside day-will try again over 150.40 with a stop under today’s low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
VNO We’re in looking for 2013 highs to clear and for this to hold today’s low
KRFT We are in on the unconfirmed phase change to accumulation and will use today’s low as a risk point looking for the confirm
DRI Closed just shy of the 50 DMA so now, if clears, will look at a new swing with risk to 52.00 area
IGT Probably should wait for the 200 DMA at 18.04 to clear before stepping in.
OXY More miniswing since lots of overhead resistance. But, if holds 95.04 could see move to 98.00
SODA Possible slingshot low if confirms with risk 46.50 and has to clear 49.20 R1
Shorts: We are short a ½ position by being long TWM the ultrashort.
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AAPL Reports January 21st. Unconfirmed warning phase and inside day. Support at 529 area then 515 area
Bye For Now!
