Repeat after me: “I will never again doubt that the small caps (Russell 2000) are the ultimate foreshadowers.” When on June 27th they were first to return to a bull phase, to July 8th when they made a first attempt to make new 2013 highs, to today, when they really did make new all-time highs, the message was clear. The other indexes are lagging for sure; but unless the small caps reverse from here, see no reason for concern whether you are a fan of buying an overboughtmarket or not.
S&P 500 (SPY)166 next hurdle. Support to hold 163.00
Russell 2000 (IWM) Only concern now is a potential reversal candle-or new highs, close on the lows with some better than average volume on that. Otherwise, welcome to uncharted territory!
Dow (DIA) )Over 153.36 strong. 150.75 key support
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 72.50 key support and like to see 73.72 clear for more strength
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)20.35 the 2013 high
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day right under the 50 DMA. Subscribers: Pointed this out in today’s video-wedged between the 10 and 50 DMA-Like over todays’ high and R1
XRT (Retail) New all-time high again
IYT (Transportation) This opened over 112.50 and took off! Watch for a dip near 113.75-114
IBB (Biotechnology) Could not clear the resistance at 183.60. Friday’s low support to hold now
IYR (Real Estate)67.40 the 200 DMA to clear now after a good comeback today.
XHB (Homebuilders) Good turnaround with the 50 DMA overhead
GLD120 now key support
USO (US Oil Fund)Never doubt a confirmed phase change-now, a bit late to the party
OIH (Oil Services)Guess this is looking at 2013 highs
XLE (Energy) Resistance at 82.00 and a bit overbought
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Overbought and at some resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: 2 day correction pattern with R1 and today’s high lining up
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Took off some at 7 ATRs! Now using a chandelier exit on balance
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: 24.54 the 200 DMA and risk. Over the 80 monthly 24.33 for a swing risk. Could see 27.00
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
**NOTE: Once again, the focus of the list is on phase changes and slingshot lows
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CLR Compressed between 90 and 91.99 which means, over 92.00 could see move to 95 or better
KRFT 55.10 good risk and over 56.00 could see move to recent highs or better
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A:
Phase Change:
AAPL July 23rd Not a phase change, but did hold the weekly moving average-look for support at 415.50 and 418. The 50 DMA reasonable
FB Reports July 24th Unconfirmed phase change although a bit overbought. 25.14 support and 25.63 the 200 DMA to clear
GPOR Inside day phase change to bullish if holds 49.39. Has to lcear 51.30 target 54.00 or higher if market stays firm
TPX Reports July 31st Inside day just under the 50 DMA. Over 45 should do it with target 50.00 and risk for swing 43.40 mini S1
EQR Long ½ and want to see it clear 58.80
PFG Reports July 25th. Has to clear 39.04
GE Reports July 19th Really like to see this clear 24.00 again, but for now, 23.20 is a good tight risk
X Reports July 30th Inside day. Can use 18.37 as risk. If 19.50 can clear, the 200 DMA is overhead and highly reasonable
LEN Brick wall bottom-played the short perfectly, now a key reversal day. Like to see 33.80 hold and clear today’s high and the 10 DMA
KBH Like this even better than LEN since crossed the 200 DMA and tested and held the 80 monthly moving average. 18.54 the 200 DMA 18.11 the monthly-those are the risk parameters and over today’s high like for swing
RCL Took out the 200 DMA now the risk. Has the 50 DMA overhead but if good, should go through it and see 39.00
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CTRX A U-Turn trade closing on the lows. Resistance at 48.94 and if breaks S1 47.27 could see move to 43.00 area
Bye for Now!
