Regarding the search for confirmation on whether or not Tuesday yielded any reversal patterns-keep searching. As choppy as the market was before, during and after Ben Bernanke’s testimony, ultimately, the day closed green and none of the indexes gave an absolute signal (which most likely means more upside considering we can revert back to the overall phase when in doubt.) I would keep big eyes particularly on the Dow (DIA) since 155.54 the May 22nd high looms, but if clears should yield another good leg up with the recent lows as the risk point.
S&P 500 (SPY)169.07 the May 22nd high is critical to here as well. I would also watch Wednesday’s low to hold as key support.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Another new high and not so spectacular but certainly not that worrisome either close.
Dow (DIA)In addition to comments above, Wednesday low important to hold in the “be ready for anything” scenario
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) New multi-year high closing price.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)20.35-20.50 the new range to watch for next move up or down
SMH (Semiconductors) Made new highs intraday. With INTC down in the post market, will watch for a reversal, but overall, still long-term friendly
XRT (Retail) After the possible reversal candle on Tuesday, Wednesday followed with an inside day making this a very important piece of the puzzle. Watch range break.
IYT (Transportation) Left a bearish engulfing pattern Tuesday and an inside day Wednesday. Again, critical range to watch
IBB (Biotechnology) Wednesday not so decisive one way or another for the short-term due to the inside day. Therefore, still have the possibility of a key reversal
IYR (Real Estate)Floating, literally-last 5 trading days- above the 200 and below the 50 DMASubscribers: Will look for a setup on that range break for swing
XHB (Homebuilders) Confirmed warning phase making this vulnerable under 30.00.
GLDAs long as 122.35 holds, an island bottom remains.
USO (US Oil Fund)New highs-why we always wait for confirmation on possible reversal signals
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Inside day
XLE (Energy) Tested the 50 DMA and had an inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Needs a monthly close over 61.00 and for now at least a move over 62.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Let’s follow the Category 2 rules-has to clear pivots and R1
UUP (Dollar Bull) Over 22.47 would take another shot long with risk to the 200 DMA
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Cleared the 50 DMA making today’s low the new risk point
SGG (Sugar) 56.47 a good point to watch for clearance. Inside day
Attention Subscribers: Reminder about Thursday’s Options Impact tomorrow at noon Eastern Standard Time!
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DDD Reports July 30th. Dropped to a condition 2 but keeping on list since above the 50 DMA which must hold at 46.19. Inside day which means must clear R1
TPX Reports July 25th As long as it holds the 50 DMA 44.36, over R1 could see 50.00 or so. Inside day
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
JPM At this point, has to clear 55.90 the 2013 high and hold 54.65 for a swing trade to see 60.62.00
CLR Needs to clear R1 and today’s high with risk 91.69 and then could see move to 95.00 area
CBI Reports July 30th. Been long what seems like forever-now only ½ position. With an inside day, like to add over 62.20 to 65.00
HTZ Reports July 30th. Has to clear recent highs but if does could see move to new all-time highs going back to 2007. Risk 26.50
MTW Reports July 29th. Over 20.29 especially since over the 80 monthly moving average, like this for a move to 23.00 area for now
MGM Inside day. Like to see 15.50 hold-and clear 16.00 for a much bigger move up longer term
CB Reports July 25th. Perfect 2 inside day setups with the b/o today. Has to hold today’s low to get to a target 90 or so
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CLH Long ½ position for the portfolio as long as it holds 54.50 level. If clears 55.37 would look to add
HOG Reports July 25th on the cusp as it is hovering on the 50 DMA. Really has to get some volume over 56.13.
BIIB Reports July 25th. Held onto the 50 DMA and previous day lows. Now, has to take out 228
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
APA Reports August 1st. Inside day. Today’s high max risk. Under the 50 DMA but must now break the 10 DMA, S1 and Tuesday's low
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye for Now!
