Although the S&P 500 and the Dow (DIA) cleared the 2013 highs intraday to make new highs, they both ultimately closed beneath those numbers. DIA had had a high of 155.44. Thursday’s high was 155.74 with a closing price of 155.34. Now, are we nitpicking? Kinda; since the close is still an all-time high close.NASDAQ did not have as good a time in anticipation of GOOG earnings on the heels of INTC’s poor earnings. As we end the week with nothing more definitive from the Fed other than we’ll keep QE for now but tapering is in the cards and an upgrade from Moody’s on the US economy to stable (unless you live in Detroit). Let’s think stable and close the week on a high note.
S&P 500 (SPY)Other than some concern if the week concludes below Thursday’s low, some digestion on a summer Friday would be welcomed.
Russell 2000 (IWM) After a couple of close calls, this continues to rock and roll after what began with a runaway gap still in play
Dow (DIA)Same concern as SPY-but hard to argue now with a close on new all-time highs
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) This week’s low is 75.17. 75.00 is a big number to hold as we end this week or really could be the first sign of a reversal.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Good move off of the old 2013 high into the new 2013 and multiyear high. Thanks Jamie Dimon!
SMH (Semiconductors) A reversal in play especially if it cannot hold around 38.60. Otherwise, a good buy opportunity for a longer term move up
XRT (Retail) Sideways as this looks more like a time rather than price correction
IYT (Transportation) See how beautiful those inside days work? After a bearish engulfing pattern and then an inside day, Thursday this took off to close on new highs
IBB (Biotechnology) In reality, still working off that reversal candle from Monday unless that high clears
IYR (Real Estate)Finally after floating for 5 days, closed back in an unconfirmed bullish phaseSubscribers: Look for another opportunity against the 50 DMA
XHB (Homebuilders) Winner of most vulnerable sector. Warning Phase.
GLDAs long as 122.35 holds, an island bottom remains.
USO (US Oil Fund)The local gas station did not hesitate to ramp up gas prices by 30 cents a gallon-and that was Wednesday before it rocketed off to new 2013 highs.
OIH (Oil Services)Cleared 2013 highs by 2 ticks and closed slightly below.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Still has the 2013 highs ahead of it
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Bought for a daytrade, got out of ¾ with a good profit-now watch to see if it holds the 10 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) Over 22.51 would take another shot long with risk to the 200 DMA
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Filled the gap and now has to hold the 50 DMA or thereabouts
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: If 56.47 holds good point to buy against with stop under the new low 55.56
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**Post Earnings: GE-Reports in the morning and if good, should be a new opportunity for a longer term trade.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DDD Reports July 30th. Remains above the 50 DMA which must hold at 46.28. Now, has to clear R1 and today’s high
OPEN Reports August 1st. Inside day. Over today’s high clears the 10 DMA and the risk would be 66.31.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CBI Reports July 30th. Cleared 62.20 which now I would like to see hold to get to a 65.00 target
DTV Reports August 1st. Inside day and has to hold 64.40 closest risk. Over 65.44 then has to clear 66 to send it to new highs
GPOR Big move today. Risk 50.00 on an opening range reversal with possible move up to 54.00
TRIP Reports July 24th Good on an opening range reversal against the 50 DMA at 61.29
MET Reports July 31st. Still has recent highs to clear but if can hold the 10 DMA 48.39, could be one to watch for new 2013 highs
HTZ Reports July 30th. Made new highs but for now, prefer an Opening Range Reversal to control risk against the old highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
CLH Long full position on the add today for a swing. Has to hold the 50 DMA nearest support
BIIB Reports July 25th. Held onto the 50 DMA and previous day lows. Now, has to take out today’s high
JCP Reports August 17th. After a slingshot low in April, each dip has made higher lows. Now, if holds 16.00 and takes out R1-with a neutral slope on the 50 DMA could be a good low risk swing trade.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ANF Resistance today’s high and under today’s low (inside day) could see drop to the 200 DMA
MOS 54.45 max risk and still has room to downside with 53.00 recent lows to break
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
PAY The risk is the 50 DMA at 19.44 and has to break 18.44 S1
Bye for Now!
