This week’s evening watches will be prepared by Matt Mullins. Michelle Schneider will return on July 7.
The last day of quarter saw Nasdaq (QQQ) closing at new highs. However, with no major reports on the horizon and the upcoming Fourth of July Holiday, I would expect the volume to slow down to a trickle. This will be a stock picker’s market where one will have to be very selective. Be careful with breakouts- make sure you have good volume and good support. Patience will likely be rewarded to the traders who wait for Opening Range Reversals. I would not be surprised to see a range bound market for the remainder of the week, however we are in a bull phase so be ready for the unexpected.
S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared the 10 DMA and closed over recent highs. 96.60 will be resistance. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Looking good. Next hurdle is the 6/24 high at 118.91.
Dow (DIA) Under the 10 DMA and is the weakest of the four major indices.
Nasdaq (QQQ) New all-time high and all-time high close. Getting extended and has a high RSI. Digestion likely.
XLF (Financials) Watch to see if it can clear the 10 DMA.
KRE (Regional Banks) Needs to clear 40.38 (the highs from the last 2 days).
SMH (Semiconductors) New all time high and closed over recent highs. Very interesting.
IYT (Transportation) 148.14 can be resistance.
IBB (Biotechnology) Compressing. 259.87 is the next hurdle.
IYR (Real Estate) Closed the gap.
ITB (US Home Construction) Needs to close over 24.94 to give confidence for the next leg up.
GLD Broke out of compression.
Metals and Mining (XME) Good day today.
OIH (Oil Services) New high close. Wow!
XLE (Energy) Compressed and looks strong over today’s high.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Similar chart to XLE
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Love this longer term. 44.78 needs to clear.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT Filled a gap on the daily chart-now if it starts to roll over, would be interested in looking at a short
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed bear phase.
EWG (Germany) Not bad but, not as good as their soccer team.
IFN (India Fund Inc.) 25.38 is the 80 month moving average
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Couldn’t clear the 200 DMA or the trendline. Broke the 50 DMA and is now in an unconfirmed Bear Phase.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ADBE Compressed with an inside day. This needs to clear today’s high and R1.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AMP Watch for a breakout or an opening range reversal against the 10 DMA.
TSLA 241.88 has to clear if buying a breakout. An ORR against the 10 DMA is a possibility.
SCTY Looks good over 72.10.
LNKD Watch for a breakout over recent highs.
ADSK Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 10 DMA.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
IGT Inside day. Watch for a breakout over today’s high.
DATA Watch for a breakout over the 200 DMA. Compressed.
STLD Breaking through converging moving averages. Big eyes here.
LPX Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 50 DMA.
V Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 200 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EMR Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure under S1.
Bye For Now!
