Impressive and not so impressive-the market paradox that has prevailed in this Year of the Horse! I have my red bracelet on every day since January 1st!
The Russell 2000s could not close above the 50 DMA after spending most of Tuesday’s session above it. It did however, close near enough to it though, to keep hope alive.
The 20 Year Long Treasury Bonds closed on new highs for 2014-worrisome. Semiconductors did great. Not quite new highs, but so darn close!
NASDAQ made new 14 year highs. S&P 500 made new all-time highs on an intraday basis and the Dow came close but no cigar.
Trouble spots-Retail-under the 50 DMA in a warning phase. Homebuilders-Crossed back over the 200 DMA, hasn’t cleared the 50 DMA. Regional Banks-under the 200 DMA and really, wins (loses) as the weakest sector.
Remember my focus on China, Regional Banks and Solar Energy? TAN (Solar) confirmed bullish but with 43.00 major resistance to clear. China (FXI) runaway gap to new 2014 highs. Regional Banks-not so much.
We can say this much-the Turnaround Tuesday and not in a good way-off the table for now
S&P 500 (SPY) If you followed the range break after 2 inside days, money was on the table. Now, 197.85 important support Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 113.82 a really good place to watch if this can hold. Likewise, over 115.25 much better
Dow (DIA) 170.45 good place to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) 96.30 now a swing area to hold or not
XLF (Financials) Thought this would do more after 2 inside days-really has to clear 22.95
IYT (Transportation) A move one would expect after 2 Inside days
IBB (Biotechnology) 260 hurdle but still not bad looking if 252 for now holds
XRT (Retail) I still say a market without a strong retail sector is uncomfortable
IYR (Real Estate) 73.00 pivotal
ITB (US Home Construction) Look for a second day of follow through
GLD island top that has not been negated.
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed warning phase-could not hold the 50 DMA but had an inside day
OIH (Oil Services) Looking a lot better-eyes here
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Needs to clear 43.00 and hold 42.15
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed accumulation phase
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
*NOTE: If the risk to the 50 or 200 DMA is more than 1-2ATRS of risk, assume that the trade is a miniswing trade. Swing denoted with a *
CYH Reports 7/31. Big range. Now, like over 46.39 better with a miniswing type risk
CBL Reports 7/29 Inside day under the 10 DMA. Like over over R1 and the 10 DMA for a miniswing
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
JPM Reported-If today’s low holds, still a trade for a miniswing possible
BAX Reported. Closed well and now continuation is what we are looking for with 76.30 max risk
QCOR Reports 7/28. For a miniswing trade like if holds 94.40 and clears 95.00 early
XOM Reports 7/31 before open Ended on lows but on the gap up-looks for 103.28 area to hold
SPWR Reports 7/31. Had an end of day opening range reversal. Has top hold 38.48
*HUN Reports before open 7/30 Phase change and condition improvement. Risk to under today’s low. Target before earnings 29 or so possible
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
AFL Reports 7/29 Inside day just under the 200 DMA which means over 63.93 clears the 200 DMA
EL Reports 8/15 75.23 but now more for a day to miniswing trade
*CREE Reports 8/12. Lets see if this can hold 48.95 and get back over today’s highs then 51.00
ODP Reports 8/5 before open Has to clear R1 5.12 and hold 5.00
*PM Reported-If this holds todays low still have a good risk to the 200 DMA and will wait to add if clears the 50 DMA
X Reports 7/29. Inside day here with 26.90 key support
Shorts:
**NOTE: Thinking that we should use daytrading risks on shorts and only carry overnight if closes in our favor-while market in bull phase
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DD Reported The 200 DMA to break 64.44 with risk then around 65.05 the 10 DMA
MOS Reports 7/31 Before open Inside day-under 47.04 with risk 47.55
D Reports 7/30 Only if breaks 69.61 and then risk more for daytrade
Category 6: White Cap N/A
