Long live the new boy King born on the day of the Super Moon! His historical birthday will also be noted as a new high close in the S&P 500. Could it be the new and all-time high? Of course anything is possible. At this point though, the extremely low volume seems more akin to digestion rather than a solid top. The small caps (Russell 2000) followed in kind while the Dow closed just below the old 2013 high (old highs for a year should ideally become support areas, especially when those high prices are from May 22nd or peak highs for nearly 2 months). NASDAQ continues to be the most compelling index right now as it is holding the gap low from July 11th (74.25) but failed to take out 74.95, the old 2013 high. With Apple and Amazonearnings nearly upon us, the market might take yet one more day of low volume before it tells us which way from here. Gold jumped 3% or over $100 from its peak low June 28th. Rates dropped nominally compared to the US dollar which is once again testing longer term support. It may be summer, but doldrums are in the eyes of the beholder!
S&P 500 (SPY)169.07 the prior high from May 22nd, now a good level to want to see hold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Runaway gap low 101.94 and most critical underlying number to hold now
Dow (DIA)155.14 the May 22nd high to launch or fail from
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subscribers: Pivots positive here and in all indexes
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Another new high performance
SMH (Semiconductors) Texas Instruments firmed in the post market which could help this after the hold of the 50 DMA. Subscribers: 38.84 the 10 DMA to clear then 39.23
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Room above and below last 8 trading days
IYT (Transportation) Inside day and near the highs.
IBB (Biotechnology) Doji day on new highs
IYR (Real Estate)69.00 has to hold now
XHB (Homebuilders) Managed to confirm the bullish phase
GLDCouldn’t clear the 50 DMA but a spectacular move off the textbook lows
USO (US Oil Fund)Possible topping action that needs confirmation
OIH (Oil Services)Possible topping action that needs confirmation
XLE (Energy) Same as USO and OIH
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Still has the 2013 highs ahead of it at 63.30
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Filled a gap on the daily chart from July 3rd with a doji day. Subscribers: would look here again over R1 tomorrow.
UUP (Dollar Bull) The 200 DMA is 22.18-watching to see what happens here
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Took some profit at 5 ATRs holding tail.
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Through 57.50 a better call for some bottoming action
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
NOTE: Post Earnings: TXN An open over 38.16 the 2013 high will be a breakaway gap to watch. Then there isn’t much until 40.00
STZ Improved in condition with today’s low good support to hold and a move over 52.50 could see 54 or better
ACAS Reports July 30th Small stock but 13.13 now good support with a move over 13.59 clearing recent consolidation. Over the 80 monthly so could see a pop ahead of earnings
CSIQ Needs to hold today’s low and clear the 2013 highs at 14.47. Next resistance is 16.00-17.00.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
GMCR Reports July 31st. Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. 75.25 is the 50 DMA, which needs to hold. Through 75.90, could see 78.30 next resistance.
BEAM Reports August 1st. Has to hold 65.24 and really clear 66 to see push up to 68.00-69.00 ahead of report
CRM Reports August 19th. 2 inside days. If it holds today’s low and clears today’s high at 42.52, has some minor resistance at 43. Could see 46 or better.
FSLR Reports August 1st 48.67 is the 50 DMA and a tight risk. Once this clears 50.0 could be good for a pop to 60.00
X Reports July 30th 2 inside days. Like to see 18.50 clear and it hold 18.00 the 50 DMA
MAS Reports July 29th 20.52 now maximum risk. A move over today’s high would be a good indication that it will meet 2013 high before earnings.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EL 67.64 now a good risk and under today low especially 66.60, could see move down to the 200 DMA.
DRI confirmed Distribution Phase with resistance 49.95 the 200 DMA. Has to break today’s low
FWLT 22.65 now resistance. Under 22.00 could see Next support around 21.00
IBM Inside day. 195.45 risk and under Friday’s low looks heavy to 190
Category 6:N/A
Bye for Now!
