The interest rates firmed as I suspected they might and wrote/tweeted about which for now, helped thefinancial sector and impacted gold, which I also wrote about.
No, not crowing-just trying to follow the bouncing ball! My very intelligent partner, Geoff Bysshe said to me, “Mish, try not to look too closely at the ticks. Give trades room and trust the phase of the overall market until that changes.”
I love watching and gauging sector rotation and getting a step ahead-really-that is my specialty. I like that XLF (Financial ETF) closed near the 2014 highs and that other bank stocks have acted well. I like that China (one I can crow about) is at new highs again. I am still waiting for the run in Solar energy-oh it will happen-matter of timing of course.
I do not like overthinking, scalping for pennies, losing focus or listening to noise. The S&P 500 is still rocking toward the target of 220 since the runaway gap that happened on May 27th even with the selloffs. There’s your trend until it’s not.
Stay tuned!
S&P 500 (SPY) 197.85 important support still for the short-term Subscribers: Negative Pivots in DIA IWMPositive SPY QQQ
Russell 2000 (IWM) Back into an unconfirmed warning phase. Support on the way down unless it breaks 113.45 the 200 DMA-then way more worrisome
Dow (DIA) 170.00 good place to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Like when I see this work off overbought conditions without much price damage-risk of reversal candle there, but has to confirm of course
XLF (Financials) 23.07 the 2014 high
KRE (Regional Banks) Slingshots: Possible brick wall bottom which will look better over 39.29 the 200 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Let sleeping semis lie
IBB (Biotechnology) Tried but couldn’t take out the 260 resistance
XRT (Retail) Had one of those one day wonders to the upside, now looking for it to hold
IYR (Real Estate) 73.00 pivotal-as in might need a rest under that level
ITB (US Home Construction) Talk about your one day wonders
GLD Right on the major moving averages-moment of truth
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed warning phase or am I good, not good, good, not good?
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day
XLE (Energy) Good overall performance
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Looks okay
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Looking at longer term and trying to ignore the noise-still see major upside just a matter of when
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Popped into resistance
UUP (Dollar Bull) confirmed accumulation phase
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Unconfirmed phase change to bullish if holds todays lows
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
*NOTE: If the risk to the 50 or 200 DMA is more than 1-2ATRS of risk, assume that the trade is a miniswing trade. Swing denoted with a *
*ADSK Reports 8/14 4 days of correction now on the 10 DMA max support of 55.85 with R1 56.35 to clear
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CYH Reports 7/31. Over 46.38 still a trade for a day to miniswing
*EL Reports 8/15 The 10 crossed over the 50 DMA which is a condition change. Like this if holds 75.31 and clears today’s high
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
PM 85.25 max risk and like again over 85.90 to see if it can get to the 50 DMA then clear it
*SFM Reports 8/7 Still a fave with an inside day on the 10 DMA which means a tight risk to under today’s low if clears 32.26 R1
SFY Reports 7/31 before open. Super thin but still in play if holds 12.13-a reversal (ORR) probably best)
AFL Reports 7/29 Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation if holds today’s lows
*CREE Reports 8/12. Closed right on support which means worth watching over R1 with tight risk to 48.50
ODP Reports 8/5 before open Like to see 5.00 hold
Shorts:
**NOTE: Thinking that we should use daytrading risks on shorts and only carry overnight if closes in our favor-while market in bull phase
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
*SDRL 38.02 resistance with a break of 37.50 good to 36.50 or lower
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
