If you are an active trader and managed to stay awake during today’s session, you got to see retail, oil and gas, biotechnology and gold make a comeback. You saw homebuilders continue to drop, the dollar get crushed while semiconductors crossed back to an unconfirmed bullish phase. You saw Facebook run,Google fall. I bet you asked yourself many times during the session-is the market going to correct more, rally, correct more, rally? And maybe, if you multi-task, got to do some chores long overdue. What we can look for tomorrow:
S&P 500 (SPY)Calling 169 pivotal, over 169.40 healthy and under Thursday’s low trouble. Subscribers: 3 days negative pivots so has to clear R1 which would be a good signal
Russell 2000 (IWM) Has to clear recent highs still, but the small caps held the fast moving average and closed over the 104 pivotal area Subscribers: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA)155.74 has to clear now, as 155.14 the May 22nd high marginally held. Subscribers: Pivots Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 75.00 turning out to be a big area to cross with 74.20 the low to hold. Subscribers:Positive Pivots
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Wrote Wednesday night-Confirmed the reversal pattern from the highs which does not always necessarily mean the it will go straight down. However, until it clears the highs remain defensive. Still looks that way
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed bullish phase. Really want to see a second day for confirmation
XRT (Retail) Came back into the 9-day channel and closed well, plus had an inside day!
IYT (Transportation) Tested and held the 50 DMA. Subscribers: R1 115.57
IBB (Biotechnology) 196.97 has to clear but best action besides retail
IYR (Real Estate)Landed on and held the 200 DMA again today putting in an inside day.
GLDBack to an unconfirmed recovery phase Subscribers: Looks better over 129.40
XLE (Energy) 84.00 big number
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. Subscribers: As much as I do not like buying new highs, might have to take a shot over 63.30
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day Subscribers: Kept ½ position for swing
EWG (Germany) Very nice
SGG (Sugar) Back to watching 57.50 for clearance
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WAG Held the 10 DMA and now best risk 50.25. Plus we can now get in over R1 51.31 which should take this to new multi-year highs.
GE Long ¾ position with stop under S2 coming into tomorrow. Like that 24.45 is holding. Like to see this resume the move up since over the 80 monthly moving average
CSIQ If holds today’s low, like over R1 13.96 to see if this time can make a new multi-year high
COF Over today’s high looks good especially since it never had a slingshot high. The 10 DMA or best risk 67.91
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
P Now we can look for an opening range reversal against 18.47
CLH Pushing up against trendline shown on video. Now, if holds 56.20, like to see 57.00 clear and close above
DOW Reported. Through 35.00 with a tight risk 34.50 should see more upside to 36.16 recent highs or higher
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change and/or Slingshot Lows:
INTC Long ½ position and now stop at 22.64 to see if can get going and clear the 10 DMA-some good volume today
AAPL confirmed phase change to recovery and an inside day. Like to see it holds 435.74 S1.
CRM Inside day has to clear 43.53 and hold 42.36
BEAM Reports before open August 1st. Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Since not much time, has to hold 65.00 and keep going over 66.00
JCP Long ½ position with stop under 15.67 to see if this can see a move to the 50 DMA or about 3 ATRs
Shorts:
Category 5:N/A
DIS Today’s high max risk and has to break 64.25. Has room to 62.00
Category 6: N/A
Bye for Now!
