Red, White and Ewe
When we start to turn our attention towards July 4th fireworks rather than the ones sparked by Greece, it’s time to declare-after jobs report before the open Thursday and maybe say, after the first hour of the trading day-hasta July 6th!
Good signs as we look ahead-The Dow, after huge volume patterns indicating a possible blow off bottom, held the 200 Daily Moving Average. S&P 500 did as well. Granddad Russell 2000 kept above the 50 DMA and like its brethren had huge volume earlier in the week.
Concerning Sectors and Groups, Regional Banks look poised to take out 45.00.Biotechnology is holding its Bullish Phase. Semiconductors defended its 200 DMA.
Better, Retail closed on the 50 DMA so we can now say that one more push above keeps Granny out of the senior center.
Interestingly enough, after writing about volume patterns especially related toTransportation, it posted more than double the average daily volume. That signals a head’s up at least, the bottom is near.
That covers the Modern Family as they get ready to don some red, white and blue, load up the grill, pop open some soft drinks and beer and clink their glasses to toast sheep pastures (trading ranges), and a family that through thick and thin, has kept one another in check.
Here’s to a wonderful holiday!
S&P 500 (SPY) Holding the 200 DMA which of course it has to continue to do. 209.16 fills a gap and if that clears, really good. Otherwise, 205.50 the 200 DMASubscribers: Positive pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 124.00 major support, held the 50 DMA and now over 126.00 a strong finish
Dow (DIA) 176.65 the 200 DMA support to hold and over 178 much better
Nasdaq (QQQ) If the week closes out over 108 good
XLF (Financials) Back to an unconfirmed bullish phase
KRE (Regional Banks) 44.00 area support then 42.85 and back over 45 a much better scenario
SMH (Semiconductors) 55.50 to clear with a hold of 54.50 important for the next direction
IYT (Transportation) Based on volume patterns think this is bottoming out
IBB (Biotechnology) 361 support and over 375 hard to argue with
XRT (Retail) Thought Wednesday key to see if this would hold and it did so far.
IYR (Real Estate) After touching a major monthly chart support point, made a new low then reversed to close on the intraday highs. Would be nice to see this stop falling
XHB (US HomeBuilders) 2 Inside days making this very interesting
GDX (Gold Miners) Super oversold at March lows
USO (US Oil Fund) Noisy until it clears 21.50 or fails 19.00
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Inside day. Like over 13.67
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Acting like there will be a good jobs number and a rate raise-we shall see
UUP (Dollar Bull) Looks strong again
EEM (Emerging Markets) Interesting pattern in some emerging markets in spite of a stronger US dollar
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Like over 27.00
CORN (Corn) Last time this was over the 200 DMA was April 2014-cleared there Tuesday
BAL (Cotton) Great basing action
SGG (Sugar) Trying to base
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***Market Tone: Short-term Positive 0, Intermediate-Term Negative 1, andLong-Term Positive 3. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and changes in real time throughout the day.
*All starred picks are from the automated list of picks (which now includes short picks!)
Category 1: N/A
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
*TASR Max risk 31.00 but can also use 32.55 the 50 DMA since it confirmed a phase change. Any OR to see if it can clear back over the 10 DMA at 33.75
AVGO Risk under 132.77 with a move over 135.80 early on good Mini to swing Any OR
*ABBV Today’s lows are max risk. Has to clear 69.10 Miniswing any OR
*EW Inside day. Like over 144.15 with risk to 141.50. Any OR Mini to Swing
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
*AWAY 30.32 good risk now and has potential longer term Any OR
SUNE 29.16 max risk and best looking in solar space. Has to clear 29.85 then R1 for a swing
EQR Good way to play housing as it is a clean reversal great risk to 70.00 level and should clear 71.87 Any OR-swing
Reversal Trades: (Glass or Brick Wall Bottom or Top):
PM A personal fave. If gaps over 81.60 could follow. Otherwise, looking for this to hold 80.50 area tightest risk. Swing
WMT Clean reversal and like to see it clear 72.25 hold 71.95 if clears that level
Shorts: Daytrades Possible OXY CXO GOOG
Category 5:N/A
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
