Crook That Marks The Sheep
During a live coaching session for our subscribers earlier Wednesday, I layered the 2015 trading range with the July 6-month calendar range and the phases to each one of the Modern Family members (IWM, XRT, IYT, SMH, KRE, IBB).
A quick assessment of 3:
1. The Russell 2000 (Granddad) is far from the 2015 lows, real close to the July 6-month calendar range low, and back to a warning phase. If holds 121.24, given the longer term charts-a chance to see it back to around 124-125.
If it fails 121.24, intermediate term bias turns negative with a good chance it will see 114-115 area in the fall with further deterioration in phase to bearish.
2. Biotechnology-our Big Bro 2015 low in January was 298.04. I shudder to think what another visit down there means for the overall market. July 6-month calendar range low is 361.89. If that breaks, start shuddering. Nearer term, if IBB continues to hold 373 level or the 50 DMA (Bullish Phase), has room to 2015 highs but at this point, doubtful we would test let alone take that level out.
3. Transportation-our tranny sibling was the first to break the 2015 low made in February, bounce, then break that low in April, bounce, and then break the April low falling to its nadir low in early July. Trannies held the July 6-month calendar range low and during today’s session, cleared the July 6-month calendar range high.
Trannies also completed half of the phase cycles when it had a death cross in May putting it in a bearish phase. If holds the 50 DMA now, it will continue the cycle confirming a recovery phase.
These layers measure the health of the various types of sheep in our humongous pasture or trading range. It serves as a reliable indicator for measuring the overall market or macro picture for the next 6 months and then working our way down to compare and contrast the health of individual sectors and instruments.
The shepherd (sheep herder) with his/her rod, staff, or crook, directs the sheep where to go, pushes forward those that are behind, and fetches back those that go astray – In this Year of the Sheep, these layers are my rods!
S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Needs to hold today’s lows on Thursday. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Dow (DIA) Nothing would surprise me. This got right up to the 200 DMA and stalled-so ready for either a gap over or a failure back to correction
Nasdaq (QQQ) 112.20 area resistance with 109.82 support
XLF (Financials) 25.30 resistance level tested. If good, will clear it
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day. Over 43.90 gets interesting
SMH (Semiconductors) this could be one reason the market is not done with the downside even after the last 2 days of rally. Has to hold 52.00
IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed recovery phase-great trade this week
XRT (Retail) Here’s another reason for concern if breaks back under 96.20.
IYR (Real Estate) Recovery phase. Looks good over 75.00
XHB (US HomeBuilders) Confirmed bullish phase with one more push possible to see new highs
GLD (Gold Trust) Taking too long to form a substantial bottom so could easily resume down move
SLV (Silver) 14.10 pivotal
USO (US Oil Fund) 16.50 good test to see what this has
OIH (Oil Services) Looks like a confirmed reversal pattern now over 31.76 support
XLE (Energy) 70.85 should hold if this reversal pattern is good.
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Could be basing
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 36.38 resistance
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120.00 pivotal
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.15 now support to hold
EWY (South Korea) Subscribers: Confirmed the island bottom
PHO (Water) 24.00 resistance
***Market Tone: Short-term Positive 3. Intermediate-Term Positive 4, and Long-Term Positive 8. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and changes in real time throughout the day.
*All starred picks are from the automated list of picks (which now includes short picks!) denote that it has one or more of the 18 chart patterns we have used on the radar screen. For example, inside day, 2 days under floor trader pivots, phase change, brick wall or return to the 10 DMA, etc.
Longs:
ACAD
AGO
ALK**
ALXN**
AMGN**
AMZN**
BA**
BC**
BKS**
CELG
CIEN
CLNE
CTXS**
EA
ECL**
EL**
FB**
FDX
GD**
GOOG
HCA**
HFC
HZNP
IFN**
JBLU
JPM
M**
MET**
NFLX
NOC**
NOW**
OC**
PANW**
REGN
RHT**
SBUX**
SGEN
SRPT
SWK**
TIF**
TQQQ
TSO
UPRO**
WETF
WSM**
Shorts:
AAL
ADBE
APO
AXP
BIDU
BIIB
CORN**
DFS
DISH
ERJ
ETR
FAST
FAZ
HTZ
MOS
MWV
MYL
PIR
PNR
SPLK
UVXY
VXX
WYNN
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
