Although there is lots of super important data about to come out this week-the second-quarter GDP, results of the Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting, jobless claims in the private sector, more earnings reports, etc., I once again retreat to the technical bubble. Market is mixed, choppy and lying in wait for some definitive direction. The small caps (Russell 2000s) remain a concern, ending under the fast moving average, with an inside day. S&P 500 can really go either way; the Dow as well. NASDAQ had a new high close although did not close on new 2013 intraday highs. Say that 10 times fast! Most sectors were not as strong other than biotechnology (no surprise) and semiconductors (pleasant surprise). Oil dropped sharply while the financials, real estate and transportation sectors did nothing to ameliorate the topping candles from last week. What does the technical bubble look like? Not a place to be heavily long or short right now.
S&P 500 (SPY)Subscribers: pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) inside day. Once again, an important range break to follow Subscribers: Pivots negative
Dow (DIA) 155.74 ultimate price to clear Subscribers: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)20.35 is the old 2013 high from the May 22nd top and now the support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed bullish phase. Subscribers: Need a second day of confirmation on that and as tomorrow is last day of the month-the close over 37.50
XRT (Retail) Made new highs but did not close on them. Worth watching for sure
IYT (Transportation) Inside day above the 50 DMA which is declining in slope
IBB (Biotechnology) A monster!
IYR (Real Estate)Confirmed the distribution phase-definitely looking to the Fed now
XHB (Homebuilders) Unless this gets back above 30.00, looks like it too can visit the 200 DMA
GLDBack to unconfirmed bear phase
USO (US Oil Fund)Textbook example of what topping candles can do
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Tomorrow we should see if this can close out the month above or below 43.80 or the 80 monthly moving average
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Will like this over 62.20 especially since it will close the month well over 60.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Showing signs of higher rates in the cards Subscribers:Kept 1/4 position for swing
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: 22.19 is the 200 DMA watching
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Confirmed recovery phase inside day. Waiting for a dip closer to 58 to buy
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GE Long ¾ position. Holding the 10 DMA now the risk. Will also be ok with an add over R1 if everything lines up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GCI After several days under pivots it is holding 25.00 now key support and if clears 25.71 R1 could resume the move higher as it is holding over the 80 monthly moving average
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
DOW Long ½ position and will add if holds the 10 DMA
IACI Today’s low the max risk or 10 DMA and over 53.00 could go to 2012 highs 55.57 or higher
AON Improved in condition. 67.28 the 10 DMA now support and over 67.63 looks good for another leg up
BBY Improved in condition. Has to hold today’s low and over recent highs, now that it is over the 200 weekly moving average, has potential
OI Late day breakout and just touching the 80 monthly. Look for a hold of 29.22 the 10 DMA and today’s low
COF Long ¼ position because we reduced exposure early on then got an unexpected ½ ATR right at the end of the day. Now, 68.50 support with 69.50 next hurdle
CSIQ Reports August 14th. Inside day. Has to clear 14.50 ultimately and hold today’s low
GPOR Reports August 6th. Which means has to make a move over 52.00 and hold today’s low to see a pop
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change and/or Slingshot Lows:
ATI 27.40 now support level to hold with 28.00 area to clear.
*BEAM Reported and if this moves out over 66.00 would go with it and use under 65.00 as stop for swing
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
IBM Still in full short position with 197.32 good risk level. if fails the 10 DMA 195.80, another sign of weakness
DRI Today’s high max risk and under S1 a new short
DIS Has this on the list last week and now again. But has to break today’s low and S1
EL 68.45 now max risk and has to break the 200 DMA
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
CAT 83.74 max risk and has to break today’s low and S1
Bye for Now!
