The market began to retreat from the top of the predicted range pre-holiday. But, it did not get anywhere near the low end of the anticipated range. In S&P 500, we saw the resistance near the 50 daily moving average. And, we see the support down around 157-158. But, with a half day on Wednesday we expect a really slow day unless the Egypt protests percolate to more violence. On all levels, I hope it doesn’t. Oil certainly reflects some concerns right now with the 1.73% gain in theUS Oil Fund. The dollar continues to firm while rates were basically flat.
(SPY)Under 160 that lower end of the range should be a fair target. Over the 50 DMA, would go with that as well Subscribers: Pivots negative in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still in bullish phase but lost some ground today although better shape than the other indexes. 96.75 key support now
Dow (DIA) Could also be more range bound between 146.50 and 150, but not counting anything out.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)72.25 key resistance to clear and under 71.00 could see move to 69.00-70.00 next
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)19.20 is a key point here. 19.50 pivotal and 20.00 a great breakout
SMH (Semiconductors) Not only has to clear the 50 DMA, but fill the gap from June 19th. Meanwhile, 37.50 pivotal
XRT (Retail) Filled but could not hold above the gap from 6/19 at 77.85. 76.00 key support. Remains in bullish phase
IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And, the 50 DMA is the area to clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day above the 50 DMA-holding the bullish pahse
IYR (Real Estate)Good comeback today. Now, has to clear the 200 DMA
XHB (Homebuilders) We shorted LEN on Monday. This ETF could still see the 200 DMA
GLDInside day and holding 119.
USO (US Oil Fund)2013 high 35.50
OIH (Oil Services)Back to unconfirmed bullish phase
XLE (Energy) 80 is number to clear or could see the 200 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Holding the gap low from 71.55. 5 days under the pivots which now need to clear then R1.
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.42 is place to hold.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JPM 51.83 the 50 DMA to hold and with 3 days under pivots, has to clear those then R1 to see 55 or better
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
Not including anything with one day negative pivots unless I really like it for the 1/2 day.
DDD Gave a whole lesson on the video about using the 50 DMA for a stop in a swing. I elected to use a tight stop, but will look again tomorrow, especially if this can clear 46.00
CBI 59.60 good risk now for newer trades with 58.90 the 50 DMA for older positions. Still see potential to 64.00 for now
NFLX todays low 220.80 good risk also the 50 DMA. Like to see it clear the pivots for signs of strength. 245 a reasonable target
LNKD Look at 180 as best and closest risk with another one like to see through 184 for signs of strength
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
BEAM Over 64.00 could see pop to 65.50 the 50 DMA and has to hold 62.60 widest risk
FDO As long as it holds the 50 and 200 DMA, now confirmed bullish phase. Some weekly resistance at 64.00 then good to 2013 highs
MON Had a reversal or slingshot bottom back over the 200 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
LEN In a small short position. Resistance today’s high and could see move to recent lows 33.50 and possibly 25.00.
CHRW the 50 DMA 57.38 the resistance for a swing and under 55.60 looks weak
CTXS Has to break S1 and then take out 60 to see more weakness. Resistance at today’s high
INFA Warning phase with resistance at 35.00 under 34.00 looks weak
Category 6: N/A
Bye for Now!
