Half a day on Wednesday with firming action and no real change to the phases in any of the indexes or sectors. Friday, especially if follows the direction established on Wednesday, should be decisive on whether or not the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow can follow theRussell 2000 back into a bullish phase or not. Let’s put it this way, with the delicate situation in Egypt, the upcoming jobs report and some leading sectors already in a bullish phase (Retail, Biotechnology and Financials), the inflection point for the market is here.
S&P 500 (SPY)Under 160 that lower end of the range should be a fair target. Over the 50 DMA, would go with that as well
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still in bullish phase and inside day. Looks pretty good
Dow (DIA) 148.25 to 150.50 the range this week so far-seems logical to follow that range break up or down
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)71.35-72.27 this week’s range so far-again seems logical to follow it up or down from here
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)19.20 is a key point here. 19.50 pivotal and 20.00 a great breakout
SMH (Semiconductors) Not only has to clear the 50 DMA, but fill the gap from June 19th. Meanwhile, 37.50 pivotal-still very optimistic here
XRT (Retail) Remains in bullish phase with inside day
IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And, the 50 DMA is the area to clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Above the 50 DMA-holding the bullish phase
IYR (Real Estate)Figuring it out-over the 200 DMA good sign under Wednesday low, vulnerable
GLDHolding Monday’s gap low so far and hasn’t cleared the fast moving average-consider those prices the range to break either way
USO (US Oil Fund)Took out2013 high 35.50 with the gap higher. Running into resistance at 36.00
OIH (Oil Services)Back to unconfirmed warning phase, but not bad over Wednesday’s high
XLE (Energy) 80 is number to clear or could see the 200 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Another inside day. Watch the 50 DMA here too
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Still friendly longer term. Subscribers:Was long, got out with teeny profit ahead of jobs report, but will not hesitate to reenter if sets up Friday
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.42 is place to hold.
**Subscribers: After the market closed, decided that this list will be better than a video-something you can look at for Friday morning. The picks are all from earlier in the week that are still setup
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JPM Reports Before Open July 12th Inside day.51.92 the 50 DMA to hold and with4 days under pivots, has to clear those then R1 to see 55 or better
TRIP Good move off the 50 DMA. Now, has to clear 61.25 to continue
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
DDD Inside day holding the 50 DMA. Still like to see 46.00 clear but like the risk to 44.22
BA Bounced off the 10 DMA and still holding near highs with possibility of a new leg up to 109
NFLX Inside day. Will look again if holds 220.88 area and clears Friday’s high
GCI Inside day. 24.50 is key support and over 25.77 should continue move up
BBBY Looks like it’s coiling near the highs if can hold 70.30. Over 72.60 new 2013 highs
LNKD Gave the 5 minute signal on Friday and took off. Now, look for an opening range reversal against 184.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
BEAM Inside day.Over 63.88 could see pop to 65.50 the 50 DMA and has to hold 62.88 widest risk
MON Inside day right under the 200 DMA which means over 98.49 confirms the slingshot low
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CHRW the 50 DMA 57.35 the resistance for a swing and under 55.58 looks weak
SPG Inside day under the 200 DMA. Has to break 157.65 and not clear 161.15
Category 6: N/A
Bye for Now!
