The energy sector joined the other groups in the bull phase: Financials, Retail, Biotechnology, Oil, Oil and Gas Exploration and Oil Service Holders. But, Real Estate remains in the weakest phase, with Homebuilders right behind. Transportation couldn’t make it to a better phase as well. And Semiconductors fell hard going back to an unconfirmed warning phase. Although all theindexes held the 50 DMA confirming the bull phase, the 2- day relative strength indicators are approaching overbought and the May 22nd swing high continues to taunt. Rates eased a little along with the US dollar. Mixed signals all around-and a bit confusing to boot. Haven’t heard a good slogan for July yet-maybe I missed it on twitter-July Fry? July high? July Die, July Oh My?
S&P 500 (SPY)Confirmed bullish phase.Held the 6/19 gap and closed above. All good unless it fails the 50 DMA from here.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Good thing the gun to the head theory worked-this did indeed gap higher, made new all-time highs intraday then closed below. That makes today’s low important now to hold as this continues to lead for now
Dow (DIA) )Confirmed bullish phase.Again today’s low is important along with 150.50 is the 50 DMA. Over 153.36 would be strong
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Confirmed bullish phase. Like to see the 50 DMA hold which lines up with today’s low, especially with some other weakens that exists in some of the sectors. Not all pistons firing is of concern.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Tried to take out 20.00 but could not on a closing basis. Lots of bank earnings this week. Overall, this group still looks like a bright future ahead
SMH (Semiconductors) Disappointing reversal back under the 50 DMA and back into an unconfirmed warning phase. But not counting this out unless it gaps lower from here
XRT (Retail) New all-time high-consumers are happy
IYT (Transportation) Closed just shy of the 50 DMA remaining in a warning phase. Tuesday should be more decisive for this group-up or down from that moving average
IBB (Biotechnology) Could not clear the resistance at 183.60. Friday’s low support to hold now
IYR (Real Estate)67.40 the 200 DMA to clear or a break of today’s low more trouble
XHB (Homebuilders) Looking a bit heavy-
GLD120 key area as either resistance to clear or if cannot. reason to believe this has more downside
XLE (Energy) Cleared the 50 DMA but now overbought near term
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 76.00 now pivotal
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: 22.94 next hurdle with stop now under 22.74
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MNST 59.50 support and risk. On weekly and monthly chart see potential for move to 72.00
BA Now, like to see 104.15 area hold as well as S1 103.50, with 109.50 level good target
BSX Reports July 24th. Holding well in a range. Over 9.45 could see 2009 highs next 11.77 or so. Has to hold around 9.20
GMCR Reports July 29th. Inside day and bounce off the 50 DMA. R1 74.68 needs to clear and S1 72.88 needs to hold. Could see move to 86.00 area
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change:
MON 98.22 the 200 DMA is now the support as this is now a confirmed warning phase. It now has to clear the 10 DMA at 99.67 to keep looking like a base
EQR If IYR can absorb the tapering possibility; this one is above the moving averages all converging. Furthest risk is 56.13, Friday’s low, next risk 56.76 the 200 DMA, closest is the today’s low 57.20. 58.80 recent highs but if that clears see move to 61.00 high from May 21.
PFG Reports July 25th. Still like if holds today’s low
GE Reports July 19th confirmed bullish phase over the 80 monthly moving average. Really like to see this clear 24.00 again, but for now, 23.15 is a good tight risk
HOG Reports July 25th. 54.81 good risk. 55.30 good point to clear to see 58.00 or better
MBI Now, 13.48 tight risk with a move over 13.85 reasons to think bigger move even up to 16.00 recent highs
MAC 61.25 should now hold. Like this setup so will continue to watch
X Reports July 30th If today’s low can hold, and 19.50 can clear, the 200 DMA is overhead and highly reasonable
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
JNPR Reports July 23rd. Slingshot high with 19.71 resistance and under 18.77 failure of the 200 DMA
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
ATI Reports July 24th. Has to break 25.72 but if it does, looks like 18.00 50 20.00 next real support
TDC Reports July 29th. Like to see this break S1 then the 200 weekly moving average at 50.12. Risk 51.82. Target could be 48.00 or lower.
Bye for Now!
