After yesterday’s drop to the 50 day simple moving average, the bell rung this morning in a very uncertain environment. All eyes were on the 50 DMA, as we asked ourselves “Is the fifty going to hold and make a comeback, maintaining this wonderful bull phase. Or, is it going crack, sending the market into a potential tailspin?” It only took one test of the 50 DMA this morning to find our answer. It was smooth sailing once the S & P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq touched and bounced from the 50 DMA. In fact, all indices except QQQ were able to close over the 10 DMA. TBTs were down today and closed under the 10 DMA for the first time since June 6th. If the markets are to continue this move upward they will first need to take out last week’s high, and then the slingshot highs from 5/22.
S&P 500 (SPY) Back over the 10 DMA. Next hurdle is last week’s high at 165.40 Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indices
Russell 2000 (IWM) Mentioned yesterday that a move over 98 will ease the pain. We’re all feeling pretty good now. 98.80, last week’s high the stop point to clear.
Dow (DIA) We need to clear last week’s high at 152.88.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Wedged between the 10 and 50 day moving average. The only index that did not clear the 10 DMA, which it needs to do for overall market confidence.
ETFs:
GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish unless it gets back over the 50 DMA. Negative pivots.
XLF (Financials) Holding the 80 monthly moving average. Bullish engulfing pattern today and cleared the 10 DMA.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the 50 DMA and cleared the 10 DMA. Not as good as some analysts expected considering today’s news from the Supreme Court.
SMH (Semiconductors) Wedged between an upward sloping 50 and a downward sloping 10 DMA.
XRT (Retail) Inside day over the 10 DMA. Needs to clear 78.40.
IYT (Transportation) Held the 50 DMA and needs to clear 114.02.
IYR (Real Estate) Climbed back over the 200 DMA into an unconfirmed warning phase. Whew! That was looking nasty.
USO (US Oil Fund) Cleared the previously mentioned level of 34.24. Now needs to clear 34.59.
OIH (Oil Services) Back to an unconfirmed bullish phase! Closed over the 10 DMA.
XLE (Energy) Bullish engulfing day. Closed over the 10.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) After yesterday’s inside day, closed under the 10 DMA into support. Under the 23 monthly.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Held critical support levels but could not close above the 10 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) After yesterday’s inside day, cleared the 50 DMA and is now in an unconfirmed bullish phase.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Very oversold. Subscribers: On sights for a reversal over the 200 DMA possibly-aside though now
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: Please follow the instructions in the email you received regarding getting into the Day Trading Room with Matt and Geoff while I take off for a couple of days.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GD Needs to clear R1 and today’s high, which line up.
MET One of the featured 80 monthly moving average trades. Needs to clear today’s high.
PFG Crossed the 80 monthly moving average last month. Cannot break S1 and clear today’s high.
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
LTD Has to hold the 50 DMA and clear the 10 DMA.
WLL Great risk on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Risk is today’s low.
YELP Neutral pivots. Needs to hold S1 and clear R1 and today’s high, which line up.
BSX Needs to clear 9.61
HLX Inside day. Needs to clear 23.95. Great support on converging moving averages and over the 80 monthly.
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
PM Needs to clear 93.07 and hold the 10 DMA.
BXP Great move today and not overbought. Good risk to the 50 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
RAX Cannot clear the 10 DMA and a good short under today’s low.
HES Cannot break R1 and needs to clear today’s low.
Category 6:N/A
