6 Reasons Why the Economic Modern Family Might Plan A Vacation In Greece
1. For Prodigal Son Regional Bank’s gallant run to new 2015 highs, there are endless beaches to soak in and relax at-now, now KRE-we’re not talking about those nude beaches!
2. For Big Brother Biotechnology’s kickback attitude, there are limitless amounts of photo opps, particularly ancient structures.
3. For Transportation and Trannies general need for reassurance-the locals are friendly and quick to offer directions or recommend a great restaurant.
4. For Granddad Russell 2000s and his requirement to remain Patriarch this year, Greece has 3000 years of existence for him to explore and learn from. After all, IWM knowing that history repeats itself, does not want to make the same mistakes!
5. For Grandma Retail, since money and budgets are a big concern, Greece is actually one of the most affordable countries to visit today.
6. For Semiconductors, who must remain in good shape for the rest of the year, Greece is off the charts for high quality and overall healthiness of the food.
Last week, Greece and the “You must pay the debt, but I can’t pay the debt” melodrama overshadowed the market. Naturally, that left the Family of the top, key index and 5 critical sectors somewhat confused.
Looking at GREK, the Global X FTSE Greece ETF, like what the country advertises as a top reason to visit there, it looks relatively crime-free making it a safe choice. The chart shows basing action with two clean bottoms in March and April. It is holding the 50 Daily Moving Average.
As this week begins, along with watching how Granddad IWM and GrandmaXRT behave-after all, we still need them most of all-it seems to makes sense to also watch GREK.
A move back through 12.00 could be the boost the Family requires to hang in there and take that Greek getaway.
Under 11.00 and Grandma Retail could freak out, cutting off the money supply and forcing the rest of the Family to have a staycation instead!
S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed return to a warning phase. Oh that Greek dance around the 50 DMA! Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 127 is the top of the range. Support now 124.43 the 50 DMA
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed return to a warning phase. In a trading Range is smartest thing to write
Nasdaq (QQQ) The 50 DMA pivotal now or 108.67.
XLF (Financials) Possible reversal top off the new highs-hard to believe so will look to see if that confirms on Monday
KRE (Regional Banks) 2 Inside days near the highs. That is a good sign that it’s merely digesting
SMH (Semiconductors) Has to clear 58.00 and hold 56.80
IYT (Transportation) Couldn’t close over the key weekly moving average. The good news is it didn’t stray that far from it
IBB (Biotechnology) Sold off, but not in a damaging way
XRT (Retail) Hung on to a declining slope of the 50 DMA so not much changes for this week-has to close over 100 or under 96.00 to be a game changer
IYR (Real Estate) Death Cross but not a short signal necessarily since price if far from the moving averages
ITB (US Home Construction) Holding up ok
GLD (Gold Trust) A close over 114 will get us interested
USO (US Oil Fund) 20.20 a good pivotal point to watch as support or resistance as this week begins
XLE (Energy) Does look heavy
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Teeny trading range and an inside day Friday.
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) After a valiant attempt at a reversal, it failed to materialize
EEM (Emerging Markets) Possible reversal in the works-worth watching for sure
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***Market Tone: Short-term Negative 5, Intermediate-Term Positive 0, andLong-Term Positive 7. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and changes in real time throughout the day.
*All starred picks are from the automated list of picks
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
*KMX If holds 71.82 the 50 DMA good for a swing over R1 and Friday high.
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
*M if holds 68.90 and clears all-time high is 70.00 who knows? Mini to Swing-Any OR
*PANW For day to mini since risk max is 172.05 after the inside day. Near all-time highs so hard to predict where it might go.
*SGEN Inside day. Like for day to mini against the 10 DMA 45.80 Any OR
*EA Consolidating. Like for mini best if holds Friday’s low and better if comes in over the 10 DMA or 62.60 and holds. Any OR
*GLPI Prefer an ORR but over 37.50 clears a lot of congestion. Swing risk 35.50, mini risk is Friday’s low
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
*GERN Like if holds around 3.85 and now over the 50 DMA at 3.95. Over the 80 month moving average so this is fine for a swing trade on any OR
Reversal Trades: (Glass or Brick Wall Bottom or Top):
X Good move end of day Friday. Like if holds Friday’s low max risk and move over 24.80 the 10 DMA for a swing only. Any OR
GMCR Meets the criteria of a reversal trade if confirms over Friday’s high and closes there. Risk to Friday’s low Any OR swing
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
PXD Risk 147.60 and could see down to 143.75 the 200 week moving average Any OR
ROST Risk to Friday’s high for day to mini with a break of 48.00 looking like it could see the 200 DMA at 46.00 Any OR
Category 6:N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
