It seems that the week has kicked off setting the tone possibly until the FED announcement mid-week, or possibly until triple options expiration on Friday. In other words, choppy, slow, low volume, directionless, but maintaining the bull phase unless the geopolitical situation heats up more.
Unless you were in solar stocks (we are in the ETF TAN and gave that a head’s up by writing this over the weekend, “Confirmed a bullish phase and looks like it’s just getting going”) or TSLA, the rest of the action failed to ignite.
The best looking index at this point, The Russell 2000s or IWM. As a student of diversion and rotation in the macro picture, I find that fascinating as IWM was my go to last year; then lost favor this year and currently, presenting that it might be time to take it more seriously again.
Looking at the floor trader pivots and how they line up in IWM for Tuesday, over 116.30 healthy and under 114.70 not so much.
S&P 500 (SPY) Waffling around here andover 194.80 back in the saddle Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Dow (DIA) Has to clear 168.10 otherwise under 167 trouble
Nasdaq (QQQ) Hovering around the 10 DMA and has to clear above 92.80 or looks vulnerable under 91.75
XLF (Financials) Closed right on support so if todays low holds, as t clear 22.65
KRE (Regional Banks) 39.85 area to clear now
SMH (Semiconductors) I’m running out of superlatives and metaphors to describe this
IYT (Transportation) Looks vulnerable unless it really moves up over 145.60
IBB (Biotechnology) Over 250 next stop around 270
XRT (Retail) Good end of day move and worth watching Tuesday
IYR (Real Estate) This could go to a warning phase
ITB (US Home Construction) Like this over 24.25
GLD If no fear, GLD still in a bear phase
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day after a breakaway gap-strong
XLE (Energy) Neck in neck with SMH
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Potentially toppy candle if confirms second day
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) The spawn of energy and semis!
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) 27.23 2014 high
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Inside day at the 2014 highs-interesting Subscribers: If this gets going, good time to watch commodities that China consumes like URA (inside day)
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Small position and now, has to hold the 10 DMA 33.30
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TEVA 51.50 max risk with R1 and todays high a good entry if Biotechs move
DFS Today’s low max risk with R1 the point to clear
MS If holds todays low, clear R1 another one we like last week back on the list
NFLX Over R1 433.24 looks like it clears consolidation for a day to hybrid swing trade. Risk to today’s lows
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TRIP Almost got in if it had closed over 104.05-highest close since early March. Instead, focus for tomorrow over 104.56 and will hold if closes over that level
OI Inside day back where our original entry was. Now, over 33.59 like with new risk 32.80
COF Provided today’s low holds, like over 81.50
CAM A move and close over 65.50 and this clears months of work with upside potential
THC Cleared the 10 DMA so if holds 47.75 level, can resume move up especially if clears today’s highs
ADSK Closed well over R1 which means could see better action tomorrow if holds today’s low
PNC Inside day and like if today’s low holds and clears R1 and todays high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TXT First 4 in a while-if holds today’s low and clears R1 39.52 then worth a reentry
Phase Change:
DDD If holds 49.80 looks great now over 51.75 for swing
SFM We are in looking for a second day over the 50 DMA at 30.59
CIEN Looks like its getting ready to clear once and for all-again if dose, risk to the low of the day
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
QIHU Against todays high on an OR high failure best and looks weak to 82 or lower
PX Broke the 50 DMA and if confirms then could see drop to 127.50
IBM Back in play if cannot clear 184.80 for new swing
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
