Oodles of nothing sprinkled with several victories in the market on Tuesday. Solars, including Tesla (TSLA)-kudos to Elon Musk, were victorious again. Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) and Neflix (NFLX) had big moves.
The Russell 2000s, featured in last night’s daily, delivered. Now, 117.48, June 9th high, sits there as either the next launch pad to clear from or excellent resistance to be respected.
I try to be one step ahead of the sector and country rotations, giving you the benefit (hopefully) of my thoughts.Solar I was extremely forthright about. Now, I look to China. Everything China-the ETF, their major momentum stocks and instruments that reflect their consumerism.
Also, with FED day Wednesday, the next direction of interest rates should set a major tone and trigger a domino effect. If you check archives of my daily, I wrote extensively about the relationship between US rates, dollar and China about a month ago.
As we head into the second half of 2014, your trading plan should consider what could be the next paradigm shift.
S&P 500 (SPY) Kind of a strange bear [pennant forming unless it clears and holds over Tuesday highsSubscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Slope in 50 DMA getting better with today’s high a really important point to clear for confidence
Dow (DIA) Has to clear 168.10 otherwise under 167 trouble
Nasdaq (QQQ) Hovering around the 10 DMA and has to clear above 92.80 or looks vulnerable under 91.75
XLF (Financials) Big move here which reflects anticipation of a sponger dollar, higher rates I figure
SMH (Semiconductors) Crazy thing-it’s not overbought!
IYT (Transportation) Looks vulnerable unless it really moves up over 145.60
IBB (Biotechnology) Over 250 next stop around 270
XRT (Retail) “Good end of day move and worth watching Tuesday” The advice I give-good day now has to clear 86.43
ITB (US Home Construction) Like this over 24.25
GLD If no fear, GLD still in a bear phase
USO (US Oil Fund) Maybe a topping candle if confirms
OIH (Oil Services) Sideways near the highs has been powerful when busts out
XLE (Energy) Have you hear the one about what happens when you cross semiconductors with energy-you get a TAN!
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Sideways near the highs
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Love child of XLE and SMH
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT stays under the 50 DMA now, think that’s it-bottom is in
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) 27.23 2014 high
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Weekly close over 39.14 huge! Subscribers: URA 2 inside days and big eyes there
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
IPG Over R1 clears todays highs and with sideways action, can see move up to 20.75 or so
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
ATI Nice train tracks and over 41.81 which means good place to gauge from tomorrow-also over 200 weekly moving average and supports China theory
CHK Stays over 30.48 like it and over 30.66 even better
DFS Did its job and now has to hold today’s low
TXT Over 39.85 should continue with new risk today’s low
NFLX Almost impossible to enter today-now, look for an ORR against todays gap low
OI Missed this one-shame, but now over 34.07, could see way more-risk is now a miniswing at most
BIDU Over 179.50 supports the China theory and considerably helps out pour now long swing position
CAM Inside day. A move and close over 65.50 and this clears months of work with upside potential
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
PRU 88.75 tight risk with a move over 90 looking good for another leg up
BYD On the 200 DMA and one push gets it through 12.10 with risk 11.62
KBH One more push over the 200 DMA 17.39 with risk to around 16.99
PRGO Inside day in its new recovery phase-good risk to the 50 DMA around 140 with R1 142.13
SFM Confirmed phase change and inside day-good daytrade for adding
CIEN Looks like its getting ready to clear once and for all (22.85)-again if does, risk to the low of the day
ONVO-we had a great exit but now, over 7.30 like again with risk to 6.80
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
IBM Back in play if cannot clear 184.80 for new swing
AAPL Unless this clears 92.65 like under S1
KMX If cannot clear 44.45 like under S1 with move to 43.40 next support
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
