Ja Ja Ja Janet And The Fed
Nothing much has changed for the Economic Modern Family after the Fed forecasts hinting at two ¼ point raises this year. The division among certain Family members remains palpable.
Transportation for example, fell, making new intraday lows. Although Retailtested the important $100.00 level, Trannies are struggling with the talk of lower US growth predictions.
Regional Banks earned the rest (and could be more like a long sleep since closed near the intraday lows after making new highs) while Semiconductorsand Biotechnology rose, most likely because our Granddad Russell 2000 got close enough to 127.00 to convince speculators that the market is strong.
Checking in with Cousin GREK- hey-wake up Eddie-we are checking in! And that about sums it up-GREK is taking advantage of the market’s averted attention to other matters and taking a snooze.
Commodities have had my full attention for a while now. Soft ones, hard ones-all have been basing holding multi-year lows.
New NASA data show that the world is running out of water. “Twenty-one of the world’s 37 largest aquifers — in locations from India and China to the United States and France — have passed their sustainability tipping points, meaning more water was removed than replaced during the decade-long study period, researchers announced Tuesday.”
Not too long ago, I used Mad Max’s box office success to turn your thoughts to what it will mean should water continue to become scarcer.
When commodities rally, it’s usually because of disastrous events. In fact, when I traded on the New York Commodities Exchanges I grappled with buying raw materials running amok because it felt like I was capitalizing on a coup, war, crop damage, drought, etc. Rooting for disaster?
No. But realistic about it, yes. I vowed that I would take profits earned from rising commodities prices and do something good for the planet.
I hope that perhaps at the very least, writing this daily is some small contribution.
S&P 500 (SPY) Doji day right on the 50 DMA. Hard to say where the trading range reconciles but it does look morel likely to up than down for nowSubscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) 127 (127.13 to be exact) the place to clear!
Dow (DIA) At this point, really should clear 180.25 the 50 DMA already if good
Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed phase change to Bullish-also choppy trading range
XLF (Financials) 25.20 is the resistance and support at 24.85
KRE (Regional Banks) Could be topping since had wide range with double the average volume
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed phase change to bullish
IYT (Transportation) I thought this would do better with Retail-but nay. 148 support over 150 better over 152 was slow to the party
IBB (Biotechnology) More sideways
XRT (Retail) Confirmed phase change to bullish yet has to close over 100 to be a game changer
IYR (Real Estate) Looks better
GLD (Gold Trust) A close over 114 will get us interested
USO (US Oil Fund) Noisy until it clears 21.50 or fails 19.00
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Like over 43.00
EWY (South Korea) Subscribers: 54.50 support with possible reversal if clears 55.45
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***Market Tone: Short-term Positive 2, Intermediate-Term Positive 2, andLong-Term Positive 7. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and changes in real time throughout the day.
*All starred picks are from the automated list of picks
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
*BYD 14.93 support-can do ½ and ½ over pivots 15.10 and over R1 and today’s high for mini to swing-5-30 minute OR
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CCL Good risk to 46.70 the 50 DMA. Over 47.35 a good shot this will continue as it is a 2015 pick-Any OR Swing
FB Confirmed Bullish Phase so tightest risk is 80.00. Over 82 healthy for a swing to see what it has Any OR
*GLPI 36.50 best risk and like on any OR-ultimately, a weekly close over 38 and this could see 48 over time-a 2-year pick and fave
VLO Confirmed bull phase. Max risk 58.30 and a close over 60 looks good as a base. Swing mainly Any OR
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
GM Unconfirmed phase change to bullish. If clears 35.98 R1 then can use a risk to the low of today since it will have to confirm over the 50 DMA. Mini to swing Any OR
GPRO Unconfirmed phase change to Accumulation. Like if holds 58.33 on any OR Mini to swing
Reversal Trades: (Glass or Brick Wall Bottom or Top):
Z 84.00 best risk now and since cleared R1 looking for it to clear 87.90 the 10 DMA for a swing trade-any OR
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
RRC Risk is today’s high. Under 53.10 pivots looks lower for a day to mini Any OR
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
