The Russell 2000s, featured in last two night’s daily, delivered. But, so did the S&P 500, NASDAQ and theDow. Have I said “rare summer rally” lately?
Yesterday I wrote about China, that I was watchingeverything China-the ETF, their major momentum stocks and instruments that reflect their consumerism. I also wrote that FED policy could be a game changer for the balance of 2014.
So what changed since the SPY QQQ and DIA have been on a tear for some time?
Retail, Biotech, Homebuilders should get their chance to party now-started on Wednesday-noted in comments below last couple of days. Financials were first and did amazing. Well, really Semiconductors were first-but that’s old news now.
And China, particularly FXI the ETF should really have some fun now over the 200 weekly moving average and basing for last couple of years.
S&P 500 (SPY) Remember the 220 target that I wrote would require patience without the expectation of a straight shot? Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Nice with miles to go-117.48 now should hold
Dow (DIA) Had to clear 168.10 and did
Nasdaq (QQQ) Relatively muted but still ok over 92.80
XLF (Financials) Looks good to new highs
KRE (Regional Banks) 40.76 to clear for this to join in
IYT (Transportation) FedEx gave this the shot in the arm it needed to get back in the game
IBB (Biotechnology) Over 250 next stop around 270
XRT (Retail) Looks great-and would buy dips
IYR (Real Estate) Even this came back after holding the 50 DMA
ITB (US Home Construction) Like this over 24.25-alot
GLD Doesn’t look bad but there are better trades out there
USO (US Oil Fund) Sideways and holding the gap-not what a sustainable market wants, but for now, not impacting
OIH (Oil Services) Another leg up
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Wow-that 78.00 level breakout sure paid for a lot of these free daily write-ups!
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Can you feel the love tonight?
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT Back over the 50 DMA-not ready to quit yet
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) 27.23 2014 high
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Weekly close over 38.14 huge! Subscribers: URA big eyes there
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: If it clears a channel on a weekly basis, great one to try again
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SU Risk for Miniswng best now against todays lows and over R1 42.92 good lineup with todays highs
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
**See lots of great setups but have to draw the line for focus-if there is something you see setting up, especially if has been a pick or a 2014 pick, please let me know. Thanks
COF Over 82.32 takes out highs and leaves room for a hybrid swing risk
GCI if holds 28.50 after gap, looks good over 29.50
OI Over 34.07, could see way more-risk is now a miniswing at most
SLB If holds 106.45 looks good for another leg up to around 110
YUM Looks ready to resume move again after highest close level-Can use risk to today’s low and like over 80.00
CAM Still needs to close over 65.50 and this clears months of work with upside potential-also R1 needs to clear
JWN A fave now of holds today’s low and clear 68.50 for a move to 70.50 or higher
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
BYD On the 200 DMA and one push gets it through 12.10 with risk 11.62
KBH One more push over the 200 DMA 17.39 with risk to around 16.99
SFM Over 31.30 is the better add now
CIEN Watch for this to clear once and for all (22.85)-again if does, risk to the low of the day
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AAPL Unless this clears 92.65 still watching the short
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
QCOM Has to break S1 and todays low and not clear todays high
Bye For Now!
