The Road To Easy Street Goes Through The Sewer- John Madden
In the world of Sport’s Championships for 2015, LeBron James, considered one of the best basketball players ever, could not take his team all the way. Unfortunately for the Cleveland Cavaliers, James’ key teammate, Kevin Love, suffered a dislocated shoulder forcing him out of the series.
Adding to the team’s woes, Kyrie Irving fractured his left knee, which ended his participation as well. So, as amazing as LeBron is, a whole team doth not one player make.
The market and the Economic Modern Family have suffered similar setbacks this year. The Granddad Russell 2000, which made new 2015 highs on Thursday, has had solid help from the prodigal son Regional Banks.
To add sparkle, occasionally, the bullish crowd has cheered for the amazing moves made by Big Bro Biotechnology (Lots of 3-point shots scored on Thursday).
Ultimately though, in order to win the Championship ring (break above the 2015 highs), the market needs the WHOLE family to show up, uninjured and with their “A” game on.
Key Players Besides our Superstars?
Grandma Retail has to hold over 100.00 at the very least. Semiconductorsover 58.47 would be a huge help.
In the NBA, this 2015 series was the most watched since Michael Jordan’s last season in 1998. Transportation, if closes out the week over 152, should ensure that next week, like the 2015 NBA Finals, the Market might become the most watched (and traded) since 2013.
Then There’s Cousin GREK
The thorn in the Bull’s side? Greece is what’s keeping the action flowing for the bookies as the Bears continue to wager that Greece will move in the direction of a Euro exit, thereby preventing the Champagne from flowing for the Bulls.
S&P 500 (SPY) The 2015 high 113.78. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) New all-time highs!! We knew you could do it!!
Dow (DIA) Struggling to keep up-must have a shoulder injury. Although, to be fair, back in an unconfirmed bullish phase
Nasdaq (QQQ) 111.16 is the 2015 high
XLF (Financials) Great volume, great moves
KRE (Regional Banks) We kept our tail in hopes it hadn’t topped out-nope!
SMH (Semiconductors) Tech still a bit weak relatively speaking-if this perks could be gauge speculators are back!
IYT (Transportation) Like Granny Retail moves so got to 152. Now needs to close the week above that level
IBB (Biotechnology) From compression you get combustion-New high close
XRT (Retail) Closed over 100-ok Granny-don’t fail us now!
IYR (Real Estate) Right into resistance
XHB (US HomeBuilders) Highest close in 2 months
GLD (Gold Trust) Ok-we are interested-if this gap holds, next hurdle is over the 50 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Noisy until it clears 21.50 or fails 19.00
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Inside day Like over 43.00
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) So far, holding the 200 week moving average
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.32 is the 200 DMA
EWY (South Korea) Subscribers: Confirmed the reversal but like to see the gap low hold-
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***Market Tone: Short-term Positive 1, Intermediate-Term Positive 5, and Long-Term Positive 10. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and changes in real time throughout the day.
*All starred picks are from the automated list of picks
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
*C Good comeback if holds 56.48 and clears 57.10. Miniswing or swing
*LLY Good correction and risk is perfect to today’s low. Has to clear pivots at 83.37 for ½ then R1 84.00 for the other ½-swing or mini 5-30 min OR
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
VLO Inside day. New risk 58.60 if clears 60.61 for a mini to swing-any OR
BID Last 2 days had doji candles and looks good for a mini trade with risk to 46.30-any OR
*GERN Cleared back over the 50 DMA which is now risk-3.95. Any OR-have to do swing on this
JAH Confirmed the Bullish Phase. 52.30 is swing risk but can also use today’s low for mini. Like the compression-might require some patience. Any OR
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
CSIQ Inside day. 32.50 good risk and over 33.50 should see move up. Mini to swing
Reversal Trades: (Glass or Brick Wall Bottom or Top):
Z Inside day. 84.00 best risk now 88.04 is the outside candle to clear. Any OR for swing only
Shorts:
Category 5: N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s low
MU Good whitecap if doesn’t to clear 25.00. Then under S1 good short for a day to mini-OR on weakness
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
