Commodities were all the rage on Thursday-gold (21st biggest move ever!), silver, sugar, gold miners, to name a few. Interest rates firmed with the long bonds back challenging the 50 DMA.
Equities were relatively flat with some profit taking in solars, Netflix, and Green Mountain Coffee-all the ones that began the week with an upswing.
The end of the session brought buyers in Biotechnology. Friday, main focus is there, Homebuilders, Short Interest Rates and yes, China (FXI) which closed with an inside day at an extremely critical weekly chart point.
I’m finding myself about that James Taylor song, “I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain.” In market terms, depends what sector you hang in for the day.
S&P 500 (SPY) Nice close once again Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) All that matters is that this level 117.48 held on the close
Dow (DIA) Rested but looks good
Nasdaq (QQQ) Pivotal are now 92.80-watch here
XLF (Financials) Inside day and good rest
KRE (Regional Banks) 40.76 to clear for this to join in
IBB (Biotechnology) A gap over 250 next stop around 270
XRT (Retail) Now has to clear the March highs 87.53
ITB (US Home Construction) Like this over 24.25-a lot on a closing basis
GLD A rare time I eat my words when I said it didn’t look bad but there are better trades-I add now, unless of course you get a gigantic gap over a major moving average
USO (US Oil Fund) Sideways and holding the gap-not what a sustainable market wants, but for now, not impacting
XLE (Energy) Overbought but amazing
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Rested but still the love child Subscribers: TAN could be an add over 44.35 as it will be a good confirm of a bottoming formation
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) 27.23 2014 high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT Second day confirmation needed under the 50 DMA-then I think its day is done
UUP (Dollar Bull) Actually, FXY may be more interesting here at the 50 DMA
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Weekly close over 38.14 huge! Thursday an inside day Subscribers: URA big eyes there over R1
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Good volume and back where we originally got in back in January-
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: If it clears a channel on a weekly basis, great one to try again
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Another possible slingshot low
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
COF Over 82.32 takes out highs and leaves room for a hybrid swing risk
GCI if holds 28.50 after gap, looks good over 29.77-in fact, looks really good
HCA Looks about to takeout highs for another leg up Miniswng risk today’s lows
GOOG If holds around 553.50 could be ready again to move up to 565 and beyond
CHK Consolidating so that means over 30.80 good for a Friday day to miniswing
SLB If holds 106.45 looks good for another leg up to around 110
NWL Over todays high looks good with risk to 31.00
VMC Still in play with tighter risk to 64.25
SYK Against today’s lows for risk-over 86.00 looks good
YUM Made its range in 30 minutes but still set up well
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
YOKU over 22.00 worth buying with stop under the low of that day if goes for a swing as it looks like its bottoming out
KBH Big range for a small stock-now, if holds todays low will look good over the 200 DMA
SFM Over 31.55 R1 for an add
CIEN Watch for this to clear once and for all (22.85)-again if does, risk to the low of the day
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
BBBY Risk 61.40 looks like its in trouble
ALK If doesn’t clear today’s high then has a possible bear flag forming-good for Miniswng
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
