For the past few weeks, all of the major indexes have been in bullish phases. Although, in the past 2 weeks the bull has been sleeping. If Nasdaq (QQQ) is going to be an indicator of what’s to come, the bulls are beginning to wake up and may give the indexes another boost. QQQ finished the week at new all-time highs, fueled largely by Apple’s (AAPL) end of day rally. The Dow (DIA) finished off the week with an inside day. We will be watching that closely on Monday, as the direction of the inside day range break may be a good indicator for Monday’s direction. Real Estate (IYR) and Oil Services (OIH) were impressive on Friday.
The market looks strong. However, one should be selective next week considering the upcoming Fourth of July holiday and the tense geopolitical situation.
S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared the 10 DMA and closed over recent highs. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Looking good. Next hurdle is the 6/24 high at 118.91.
Dow (DIA) Inside day. The high of the inside day corresponds with the 10 DMA. 168.50 is an important level to clear.
Nasdaq (QQQ) New all-time high and all-time high close. AAPL helped light this fire.
XLF (Financials) Closed above the 10 DMA. Watch the 10 DMA to see if it is support on Monday (22.75).
KRE (Regional Banks) Really like this short and long term. Watch the 10 DMA for support.
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day. Holding that runaway gap which is great.
IBB (Biotechnology) Very strong. 259.87 is the next hurdle.
XRT (Retail) Consumer sentiment came in higher than expected. May have a golden cross early next week.
IYR (Real Estate) 72.03 closes the gap. Great move today.
ITB (US Home Construction) Establishing a base over the major moving averages. Needs to clear 24.71.
GLD In a holding pattern
Metals and Mining (XME) Wrote about this in early June when it changed phases, now looks like it want to continue basing
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day
OIH (Oil Services) New high close. Wow!
XLE (Energy) Compressed with an inside day.
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) 3 inside days!
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Love this longer term. 44.78 needs to clear.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT Filled a gap on the daily chart-now if it starts to roll over, would be interested in looking at a short
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed bear phase.
EWG (Germany) Not bad but, not as good as their soccer team.
EWP (Spain) Subscribers: Inside day on the 50 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Couldn’t clear the 200 DMA or the trendline. Holding the 50 DMA.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
PANW Inside day. Looks great over 82.27.
AMP Watch for a breakout over Friday’s high or an opening range reversal against the 10 DMA.
BIIB Good biotech. That is if it clears 321.89. An ORR against the 10 DMA also a possibility.
NFLX Needs to hold the 10 DMA. Watch for a breakout or opening range reversal.
TSLA 241.88 has to clear if buying a breakout. An ORR against the 10 DMA is a possibility.
LNG Started to break out of the compression on Friday. I will consider a breakout over the recent highs, especially if FCG breaks out of the 3 inside days.
YELP Inside day, holding the 10 DMA. It needs to clear Friday’s high.
TEVA Watch for a breakout or an ORR against the 10 DMA.
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
IGT Entered an unconfirmed Accumulation phase on Friday. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 200 DMA.
DATA Watch for a breakout over the 200 DMA. Compressed.
Bye For Now!
