If One Of Those Bottles Should Happen To Fall
Besides The Economic Modern Family breaking out into “99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall”, as the traffic cleared, the other best event of my day is the correspondence I get from so many of you, writing to me in the same Economic Modern Family vernacular! Awesome! Thank You!
I googled “99 Bottles..” and found that the song, purposely repetitive in nature, has mathematically and scientific inspired variants. O(log N) is an equation developed by computer scientist Donald Knuth, who proved the song has complexity in its simplicity.
Hence, our Family’s appropriate choice of song whilst it put on some mileage with all members happy except for Brother Semiconductors. However, while he mopes in the backseat of the minivan, his sympathetic sister Transportation, reminds him the Mergers and Acquisitions that rocked him to new highs the week prior-(Intel and Altera, Avago and Broadcom)-were anomalies and since he already lead the family up to current levels with all the work he did from 2012 on, his purpose for 2015 is to simply hang out.
58.47 was the March 2nd high until last week-therefore the area Semis should hold around. As for the rest-Bravo Granddad Russell 2000 for proving that he was aptly anointed “driver.” And Brava to you Grandma Retail, for busting through the 50 DMA breaking out the piggy bank and hopefully, heading to a mall. Retail will look so much better if it stays above the 50 DMA and confirms the bullish phase.
Lest I forget my fave, Regional Banks. Love you brother. We invested you in February and never broke trust. Please don’t let our faith in you go to your head, though. With Wednesday’s new highs, we are so close to locking in partial profits. Yes-we still believe you can make it $45.00-46.00!
Grandma Retail’s cajoling Transportation back into the van gave that sector some renewed confidence. 151.80 is the weekly moving average. A close above this week and off she goes!
Janet Yellen and the gang of Traffic Controllers at the Federal Reserve did a good job directing Tuesday’s traffic. Rates firmed and really, with no major damage done to commodities. Sure Gold and Silver retreated from Monday’s highs, yet, both closed above last week’s lows. Big eyes remain looking for bottoming patterns to buy.
Most soft commodities rallied. As mentioned in Sunday’s daily, I believe that, “Both roads--lower interest rates if the Fed injects and rising interest rates if the Fed follows the path of least resistance to sell the bonds they are holding--eventually lead to the same result. At some point-and timing is key-commodities will bottom and yield the next best long term investment opportunities.”
S&P 500 (SPY) Closed under the fast moving average, 212.23 now resistance to clear on a closing basis with 209.96 the 50 DMA to hold. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) If this is good, it’s not too late to buy against 122 and see if it can finally bust out making new highs
Dow (DIA) 180 pivotal with 179 support and over 181.50 better
Nasdaq (QQQ) Double top possible at 111.08-16 and support to hold at 108
XLF (Financials) 24.90 the point to clear
KRE (Regional Banks) New 2015 highs
SMH (Semiconductors) Topping candle confirms but we will give it leeway to 56.50
IYT (Transportation) 151.80 the pivotal weekly moving average to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Paused
XRT (Retail) The 50 DMA is 99.50 to hold up
IYR (Real Estate) Just as we would expect with rates firming
GLD (Gold Trust) If clears Wednesday’s highs again good sign
USO (US Oil Fund) 20.00 is where the real support is.
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Didn’t confirm a bottom in place on this correction
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 117.06 is the 200 week moving average.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Rates rise dollar drops-can someone explain that to me?
DBC (DB Commodity Index) Like this now and especially if holds over 17.50
SGG (Sugar) Trying to bottom
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***Market Tone: Short-term Negative 1, Intermediate-Term Positive 4, andLong-Term Positive 9. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and reported to you on twitter.
Category 1: N/A
BABA Has to clear 91.26 and hold 89.90 for a mini to swing trade. May high 95.06 if clears will look very good. 5 or 30 minute OR
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
KMX 72.15 is best risk since 50 DMA is far now making this more of a miniswing trade best with an ORR entry if happens . Otherwise, over 73.00 with volume ok to try. Any OR
TASR Improved in condition and has support at 30.38 to trade against. Swing good even can risk to the 50 DMA. Like on any OR over 31.71 the 10 DMA
Category 4:N/A
Phase Change:
PX Risk is 121.55 and should clear/close over R1 123.12 after reversal pattern. Any OR although prefer ORR unless volume comes in early
SODA If holds 21.50 seems poised to tackle the 200 DMA and beyond Swing. Any OR
Reversal Trades: (Glass or Brick Wall Bottom or Top):
CSIQ Inside day. Like over R1 32.42 and today’s high with risk to under 30.60 swing-however, would have to close over 32.57 Tuesday’s high to confirm reversal
DRI Had the reversal and now, 2 days under pivots, over R1 has a good shot of taking out the 50 DMA at 65.68-so tight risk to 64.95 if can’t make it but looks like it could.
SWI Unless this gaps over 50.05 prefer an ORR against 48.05 the 200 DMA for mini to swing. Any OR
Shorts:
Category 5:N/A
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
