About those reversal patterns. One key indication is when a new 60 day plus low is made (even more powerful when the low is on or near a major simple moving average), then it (depending upon which instrument) closes in the top 25% of its intraday range. As with every one of our indicators, confirmation is key. Only one group has this pattern (Real Estate). The key indexes can boast holding the nearby moving averages and closing above Wednesday’s lows. Therefore, “Put on a Happy Face” as we head into the US Employment Numbers, flushed with cash and ready to party or equally ready to be grateful for the discipline to await confirmation!
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the 50 DMA with what I read someone call the “too obvious” bounce. However, a darn good start as we head to the end of the week. 164-165 is the overhead resistance to clear Subscribers: Neutral Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 96.50 level I wrote about and now, has to clear 98.00 next resistance Subscribers: Positive Pivots
Dow (DIA) Held the 50 DMA with 151-152 the area to clear Subscribers: Negative Pivots
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the runaway gap and now has to clear 73.00. Like all the indexes and previous comments above, another day of confirmation that the correction is over is super necessary before we get too excited Subscribers: Negative Pivots
ETFs:
GLD Touched the 137 resistance after holding the 134 support. I rather wait for the short then call for the bottom-but for now, happy on the sidelines
XLF (Financials) Back in the box (at the risk of overusing a term). More importantly proved that 19.50 is indeed pivotal. Now, 19.78 next hurdle
IBB (Biotechnology) Second indication of a reversal is when we go to a one day unconfirmed phase change, only to go back to a better but equally unconfirmed phase change the next day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Underperformed, but holding the May lows so far. Subscribers: And holding that channel on the monthly you should have etched in your brains by now!
XRT (Retail) Impressive close at the end of day as it also never really broke as hard as the other groups making this a great place to look at tomorrow over 78.00
IYT (Transportation) Subscribers: As shown in today’s video, with the weak warning phase and an upward slope in the 50 DMA, a cross above, 111, is a good reason to think worst is over
IYR (Real Estate) Classic reversal pattern looking for the confirmation Subscribers: Second day confirmation over today’s high needed
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Subscribers: Waiting for a confirmation
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Held the 50 DMA (and one heck of a stop for the position traders today)
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Broke then came back through 66.00. Very interested to see what happens here tomorrow
XHB (Homebuilders) Subscribers: As shown in today’s video, with the weak warning phase and an upward slope in the 50 DMA, a cross above, 30.40, is a good reason to think worst is over
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Futures over 16.70 puts this back in the channel
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: All of the long picks were on your list this week-I am choosing the ones with the best setups-and if market recovers-all good for swings
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
KSS Maybe the prize for the most talked about pick! Now, through R1, the 10 DMA and a bull flag trendline, we should see a good move. Risk around 50.80
GE This is here because of the 80 monthly moving average. So, R1 is a good point to clear and then right above the 10 DMA. Find the ones just clearing the 80 monthly are great candidates for position swing trades.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TTM Condition improvement and inside day. 27.30 first point to clear, then 28.00 with 26.75 max risk
PRU Improved in condition and yet another that is over the 80 monthly moving average. Already cleared R1, now has to hold 68.00 level.
YELP Through 29.15 to 29.30 should get this going more. And, it must hold 28.00 level
BXP Loved today’s action and close near the 10 DMA plus back to an unconfirmed bullish phase. Not to mention the slingshot low rule illustrated!. 108 is support and might look to add over 110
KORS 2 Inside days!! 60.86 max risk. Really, 62.40 the point to clear now.
AFL Nice move today and now over 57.00 looks good for another 3.00 move higher. Risk around 55.75
MET Improved in condition and above the 80 monthly. 44.14 is R1 to clear and 43.20 area now support to hold
NTAP Inside day. Has to clear 37.78 and hold 37.00
BSX 9.20 key to cross with 9.00 support. Over the 80 monthly here too.
FSLR 52.50 is a good pivotal support point to hold with an improvement in condition. Then, the next point to clear is 56.00. If can get a good risk close to max risk, would look at a buy
AMZN Slightly negative pivots. The 50 DMA 263.34 max risk. And needs another trip and close over 270
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
DLR Glass bottom confirmed along with move over the 200 weekly moving average. Today’s low support
PM Possible slingshot low needs to confirm and back over the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
RDC Inside day and unconfirmed phase change to bearish. 34.00 max risk with 33.80 the 200 DMA and 33.60 the 50 DMA. Needs to break S1 33.18
AAPL Short ½ position from 443.50 with a no loss stop. Did not break the 50 DMA but if it does, even in spite of its oversold RSI could see 420
Category 6:N/A
