Name Something Ain’t Nobody Got Time For..
Family Feud Question
We have to hand it to Granddad Russell 2000 and Brother Regional Banks as patriarch and beloved son of our Economic Modern Family. Why?
They worked like the dickens to hold up the rest of the clan in spite of the waning health of Semiconductors and Transportation.
Semis took notice. They at first broke the below the 50 DMA, registering oversold on a 2-day Relative Strength Indicator and then ultimately closed marginally beneath the 50 DMA.
Transportation broke the pivotal 152. We have watched that one as the first to decline. Biotechnology, although could not rally above the trading range from April, held up relatively well.
Grandma Retail, although traded and closed below the 50 DMA, held the fast moving average. Often we have seen her torn between spending and saving.Retail truly sits smack dab in the middle of a one month trading range!
Over the weekend I wondered whether this week will unfold comparably to the Griswold’s during their National Lampoon Vacation, arriving at Walley World only to find it closed for repairs.
Perhaps the perception of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September is to blame. Perhaps the bull market is finally waning for real.
Minimizing long exposure with specific equities makes sense right here. Even Bloomberg Business put out an article titled, “Goldman Confirms This Really Is one Boring Stock Market.” Guess they haven’t read my Year of the SheepTheory written back in February about sheep mostly peacefully pasturing in a wide range!
I will keep watching the main members of the family (IWM, XRT, KRE) for if they give it up, then we can imagine they did indeed ditch the minivan to fly home.
Yet, however prepared I might be for the possible end of my family’s “Vacation”, I’m equally prepared to have them audition as contestants on the game show, Family Feud. To be eligible for the show you must have 5 Family Members related by blood, marriage or legal adoption.
That means we have to sacrifice one member-or one sheep-hmmm-please stand by.
S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed warning phase with support now at 208.40 pivotal and if clears 209.50 better Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all except IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still holding up the best. 124.90 back to pivotal, under 124.25 more troublesome and over 125.45 better.
Dow (DIA) Down to test late April early May lows with 175.95 the 200 DMA
Nasdaq (QQQ) Double top looking more possible now as this enters an unconfirmed warning phase.
XLF (Financials) 24.95 the point to clear with 24.45 the 50 DMA
KRE (Regional Banks) Possible top in the works and we can definitely blame the others for it if that is the case
SMH (Semiconductors) My guess so oversold could see it hold 56 level and take another stab at 58.00
IYT (Transportation) Week is young but for now, back under that key 151.60 level on the weekly chart
IBB (Biotechnology) Has positive floor trader pivots for Tuesday so between this and semis, we could see another pop all around
XRT (Retail) United we stand but divided we fall.
GLD (Gold Trust) Confirmed reversal off the lows so could get interesting
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and over 20.00 better
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Hard to believe this will have much more downside, but will look at it as a buy opportunity
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 117.12 the 200 week moving average
EWG (Germany) If there is a country to watch-its this one so close to the 200 DMA
CORN (Corn) Back to basing
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***Market Tone: Short-term Negative 3, Intermediate-Term Negative 3, and Long-Term Positive 3. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and reported to you on twitter.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HLF If holds 52.25 the 10 DMA and clears pivots, 52.70 for ½ then R1 58.10, R1, then could see a continuation move higher. Mini to swing
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
NTRS Like on any OR if holds 74.93 max risk.
MYL 2 Inside days slightly negative pivots. Has to hold S1 73.29 and clear 74.19 R1 for a mini to swing
SRPT Over 27.00 is best if holds around 25.00 for a mini to swing as this is close to recent highs
M if holds 68.25 and clears all-time high is 70.00 who knows?
RHT 76.39 is the 50 DMA risk point, any OR is good, and over 79.35 is good for miniswing
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
SODA Inside day. Held the 10 DMA at 21.52. Like if can clear 22.14 with risk to 20.56 the 50 DMA
PX Cleared the 50 DMA and has to hold now over 121.10 and then clear R1 122.15 for a swing mainly
Reversal Trades: N/A
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
KORS 49.00 good risk point. Under 48 looks lower-day to mini
BA Inside day. Under 140.05 breaks recent lows and should be good to the 200 DMA at 137.50 Risk 141.40
LMT Risk to 190.47. Needs to 188.69 or S1 Day to mini
AXP Risk to 79.85 as it broke the 50 DMA. Like mainly for a daytrade and if works well, partial for mini
Category 6: N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
