The most excruciating virtue to master as a human is patience. Traders find mastering that virtue exponentially more difficult.
Patience however, is typically key-and right now it’s downright crucial! With the looming situation in theUkraine-and every tweet about it, rumor or true, a market mover, the uncertainty and noise must be tuned out.
That leaves the technical signals which are equally uncertain. First, there is the possible blow off top in theRussell 2000s which, although have been followed by sideways price action last week, did nothing more than leave us hanging on whether or not the top is in place or the huge volume from last Tuesday will ultimately serve as a launching pad.
Second, the Volatility Index firmed on Friday-a good hedge and important indicator-again of uncertainty. Third, the Dow or DIA tried and tried to clear January resistance having yet to do so. NASDAQ, made new highs on Friday and closed weak or at least with a large red candle taking out last Tuesday through Thursday’s price action.
Finally, the S&P 500 made new highs on Friday and looks the strongest heading into this week. So here we sit-patient, mildly long equities, commodities, hedged with the Volatility Index and as patient as a stone.
S&P 500 (SPY) This barely eked out an accumulation day in volume but did manage to close green. Now, Friday’s low is important to hold Subscribers: Negative pivots in all except DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Sideways. Needs to take out 120.58 or if breaks 118 trouble ahead.
Dow (DIA) Gets through 2014 resistance and everyone will feel a lot better-the bulls anyway
Nasdaq (QQQ) Not sure which looked more tired by the end of last week-this or me.
XLF (Financials) Stands alone on new highs like a beacon or a lonesome dove
SMH (Semiconductors) The new biotech of 2014-been sayin that
IYT (Transportation) New highs on a doji day
IBB (Biotechnology) 248 the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Liked the jobs report and the increase in consumer credit.
IYR (Real Estate) Like to see this get back to 67.00 for a fresh lower risk buy
XHB (Homebuilders) Subscribers: Let’s look at this as a Condition 2 correction which if clear over 33.75 Monday gives a good risk to Friday’s low.
GLD Chop chop.
USO (US Oil Fund) Needs to fill the gap at the island top to resume the up move
XLE (Energy) Has to clear 88.48 once and for all
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Like this if holds Friday low
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 70.00 main support and looking like rates will firm provided geopolitical news doesn’t head investors to a safety flight
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Mondays’s range break will be telling one way or another
KRE (Regional Banks) New highs
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Stopped at the 200 DMA and watching 32.50 level to hold
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Still resting
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Didn’t close above the 65 week moving average which has to clear to keep this going
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingl
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CNQ Watch for a reversal or breakout over 37.64. Needs to hold the 10 DMA.
WLP If holds 90.00 could see more upside especially if clears 92.00
FDX Needs to hold the 50 DMA. Really has to clear 129.39 to get moving
KSS A lot of support around the moving averages with a great basing action on monthly chart. Like to see it clear 56.18
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
KBH Great correction to the 50 DMA which means if Friday’s low holds, and it clears 19.00 we have a new long setup-provided the market holds up
Phase Change:
LRCX over 53.96 clears a gap with a decent looking long term chart
MO 36.08 support to hold with a move over Friday’s high good
GDX 25.50 is support area and if can get back over 26.50 or so, much improved
XOM If opens over 95 and clears 96 back in play
JBLU Looks good if hangs out over the 50 DMA
IBM 187.04 the 200 DMA to hold-still good if DIA moves
JCP 8.12 the support area on the gap from last week
SODA Has to get over the 50 DMA soon
GE 26.04 the support area to hold
Shorts:
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
APA Has to break S1 and not clear Friday’s high
Bye For Now!
