I am not sure who is more tired-at the highs-but tired: the market or me. When a runner hits the wall during a marathon, the choice is to stop or keep going, but at a really slow pace. The Dow (DIA) has rallied 9 days in a row, (longest winning streak since 1996). Even with the higher close, the day's trading range was inside yesterday's trading range. Volume is super light, RSI's super high. Not exactly the blow off rally the bull market of 2013 deserves. Seems more like a crawl to the finish line from here.
S&P 500 (SPY) The 2007 high still in gear 157.52 with 155 now support. Subs: Pivots Positive in all but NASDAQ
Russell 2000 (IWM) Crossed 93.75, but this is exactly what I mean-it seemed so anticlimactic. Subs: Out of TWM and keeping fewer open positions even with these new highs
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 69.00 has to clear and 68.00 has to hold
ETFs: Subs: Long 3 ETFs-XLF IYT SMH which is exactly my plan in this bull run. These 3 areas are what have to sustain to keep the market firm.
GLD If the market is for real, this should go south. Looking at 153 to see if holds or fails
XLF (Financials) Second inside day for all you marathon buffs-but I still have my money on this finishing the race Subs: Using the 10 DMA now for our trailing stop in the swing based on a closing basis
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day
SMH (Semiconductors): It's all about 36.00-and she is such a tease! Subs: First attempt at last week's high did not encourage me to add. But, when it clears 35.80 with some enthusiasm, I will
XRT (Retail) New highs after great report
IYT (Transportation) Cleared 110.
IYR (Real Estate) Wrote yesterday: "Tested and held the fast moving average. Above today's high would be a good sign and below today's low more reasons for concern." Go figure, a doji day right in the middle.
USO (US Oil Fund) Failed again to close above the 200 DMA Subs: Good place to look for a short if cannot clear 33.37
OIH (Oil Services) Mainly I see a sloppy chart, now with an inside day Subs: We are back to watching the 80 monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) Has to clear the top in place form early February.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Bought above the pivots and got stopped out using a miniswing risk. But pivots positive so still watching
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Into resistance on my weekly chart and had an inside day
XHB (Homebuilders) Has to clear 30.00
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: What I tweeted, "EWI you could dump or not-I have no attachment to that trade." However, Keith says it is still in play as long as it holds the 200 DMA.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
*NOTE: The power of a phase change when price is near the moving average-the best trades: LMT RTN. Please watch the video and pay attention to how to trade in an extended market when there is a high RSI and big risk, versus the opposite.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LEN Listed as a U-turn on my scanner. If holds around40.50, and clears R1, looks good with some overhead to clear as well
JPM 3 inside days with 49.82 the 10 DMA a good risk if clears today's high
PH Has to hold the 10 DMA 96.25 and clear R1-see the possibility of a move to 101.50
OI Crossed the 200 weekly moving average so can use 26.35 as a risk. Like this for a swing trade over today's high and R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MSI Beginning to firm after a correction under the 10 day moving average with an inside day. Watch the 10 DMA 62.50
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SPLK 2 Inside days with good max risk under 38.00 area. New issue from 4/20/12 with high 39.75. Like to see it clear today's high
QCOM If holds 66.55 just around the 10 DMA, could be gearing up for a small bull flag breakout
AMZN Inside day. 272.10 is the 10 DMA and good risk
LVS Today's low is max risk and looks as though it wants to clear highs but first needs to get though R1
BEAM Needs to clear 62.00 to continue up
HLX Has to clear 23.85 to get going and hold 23.36
EXPE Has to clear 66.00, to get to next target 68.00. Today's low good risk
APC Looks like XLE in that it has to clear February highs. Inside day
CAM I rarely give a new high type trade, but this had an inside day, followed by a doji and good risk to the 10 DMA 64.39.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: DE Really has to clear 91.75 R1 now to be good. ROK Unconfirmed back to bullish and has to clear 89.34 R1 UA Unconfirmed recovery phase if holds 48.70-prefer a reversal
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EW Max risk today's high an could see 84.00
SU Max risk 30.68 and could head to 26.00
AAPL A possible drop to 365 over time. Max risk is 433.50
WLT 31.00 good risk level and 29.50 some support
SPG Confirmed warning phase provided it does not clear 160.45 the 50 DMA
Bye for Now!
