Michelle Schneider will be on vacation until 3/21. In her absence, Matthew Mullins ( Assitant Director of Trading Education and Research, and leader of the Day Trading chat room) will prepare the abbreviated Evening Watch.
S&P 500 (SPY) Here is evidence of the blow off rally that Mish has been writing about since last week. Watch today’s low to hold but, most likely heading towards the 50 DMA. Subscribers: Negative pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Blowoff! Watch the 3/3 low (115.58) as potential support. A visit to the 50 DMA is likely.
Dow (DIA) Closed under the 50 DMA to put this into an unconfirmed warning phase. The 3/3 low is potential support at 160.49.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Today’s low lines up with the 3/3 low. Watch for that level to hold. If it breaks, hello 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) Over 22.18 looks a lot better. However, a test of te 50 DMA is likely.
SMH (Semiconductors) Held up fairly well today. However, one should be cautious considering today’s bearish engulfing candle.
IYT (Transportation) Another bearish engulfing pattern. Watch out if this breaks today’s low.
IBB (Biotechnology) Watch the upward sloping 50 DMA as a support level (250.48)
XRT (Retail) Watch today’s low to hold. Retail sales rose for the first time in 3 months but was pulled down with the rest of the market.
IYR (Real Estate) Over 68.65 looks a lot better. Held up very well today.
XHB (Homebuilders) Held the 50 DMA
GLD New six month highs. Watch the low from 3/12 to hold.
USO (US Oil Fund) Held the 50 DMA with an inside day
XLE (Energy) watch 86.03 for support
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Held the 50 DMA but with a bearish engulfing pattern
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 67.72 (3/3 low) is potential support
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Broke recent lows and negated the possible slingshot low.
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Now looking at the 200 DMA to clear
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Holding well
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Held the 200 DMA with an inside day
****NOTE: I left 6 positions on in the model portfolio with GTC orders and targets. Geoff will be adjusting these every day. Watch for a text, but more reliably, figure that after 30 minutes, he will update everything on the model.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
YUM Today’s low must hold. Watch for a breakout or reversal over R1.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SCTY Holding the 50 DMA. Watch for a breakout over R1. Today’s low must hold.
GGP Recently over the 80 month moving average and is in a strong sector. Watch for a breakout or reversal over the 10 DMA.
GDX Today was the best day to get in but, it is not oversold yet. I prefer an ORR to control risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ASML Holding converging moving averages. Looks great over today’s high. The 200 DMA must hold.
LRCX Holding support. Looks great over R1 at 53.94
FDX Looks great over 138.70 against the 50 DMA
FNSR Confirmed a phase change to bullish and has positive pivots. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the converging 10 and 50 DMAs.
NUGT A gold miner, which have been very strong. This one just cleared the 200 DMA to move it into an unconfirmed Accumulation Phase. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 200 DMA.
EL Holding the converging 10. 50 and 200 DMAs. 70.45 needs to clear and the 10 DMA needs to hold.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
APA Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure under today’s low.
F The 3/3 (15.03) low is potential support. It lines up with S1. Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure under 15.03.
Bye For Now!
