Michelle Schneider will be on vacation until 3/21. In her absence, Matthew Mullins ( Assitant Director of Trading Education and Research, and leader of the Day Trading chat room) will prepare the abbreviated Evening Watch.
S&P 500 (SPY) Drifted lower and is still holding support levels from January and February. It is getting oversold but, a trip to the 50 DMA is not out of the question. Subscribers: Negative pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. Watch the direction of the range break as an indication of the indexes next short term move.
Dow (DIA) Confirmed the phase change to warning today. This index is also getting very oversold. Watch the 160.10 area for support.
Nasdaq (QQQ) This is the least oversold of the indexes. A test of the 50 DMA will not be surprising. 88.02 is the 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) 21.75 area is potential support.
SMH (Semiconductors) Friday’s low lines up with February consolidation. Watch that for support.
IYT (Transportation) Inside day.
IBB (Biotechnology) Watch the upward sloping 50 DMA as a support level (251.01)
XRT (Retail) Accumulation day in volume. Watch for Friday’s low to hold.
IYR (Real Estate) Holding up very well. Looks good over Friday’s high and the 10 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day on the 50 DMA. A favorite for Monday.
GLD Nearing the 65 week moving average at 134.86
USO (US Oil Fund) Broke out of it’s inside day and is nearing the 200 DMA at 35.82.
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day on the 50 DMA.
XLE (Energy) Inside day on the 50 DMA.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Another inside day on the 50 DMA.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 67.72 (3/3 low) is potential support
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Inside day
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Inside day
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Inside day
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Forming a pennant formation under the 200 DMA ( 34.29)
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Forming a nice base. Watch for 58.23 to clear and the 10 DMA to hold.
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers:
****NOTE: I left 6 positions on in the model portfolio with GTC orders and targets. Geoff will be adjusting these every day. Watch for a text, but more reliably, figure that after 30 minutes, he will update everything on the model.
Have a lot of picks because they can be referred to each day while I’m on vacation with Matt watching for entries.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SCTY Tight range with an inside day, holding the upward sloping 50 DMA. Friday’s high and R1 line up. Watch for a breakout over Friday’s high. Friday’s low needs to hold.
CXO 114.55 max risk. Watch for a breakout of ORR preferably over the 10 DMA.
GPOR Watch for a breakout or ORR. Friday low max risk.
LNG Positive pivots. Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 10 DMA.
GGP Recently over the 80 month moving average and is in a strong sector. Watch for a breakout or reversal over the 10 DMA.
FNSR Watch for an ORR against the converging 10 and 50 DMA. Or a breakout over 25.13.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change:
FDX Inside day and is holding the 50 DMA. Friday’s high needs to clear and Friday’s low need to hold.
Watch for a breakout or ORR against the converging 10 and 50 DMAs.
EL Holding the converging 10. 50 and 200 DMAs. 70.45 needs to clear and the 10 DMA needs to hold.
HSP Friday’s low needs to hold. Look for a breakout or ORR over the 50 DMA.
TXT Inside day over the 50 DMA and is very over sold. 37.6 cannot break and 38.25 needs to clear.
USG Inside day on the upward sloping 50 DMA. 32.09 cannot break and Friday’s high must clear.
Z Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase on impressive volume. Watch for a breakout or reversal over the converging moving averages.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
F The 3/3 (15.03) low is potential support. It lines up with S1. Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure under 15.03.
CLF 2 inside days with negative pivots. Friday’s high cannot clear and Friday’s low needs to break.
BIDU Very weak. Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
MR Cannot break R1. Watch for a breakdown under Friday low.
Bye For Now!
